By Lawrence G. McMillan
The stock market leader and investor favorite may have peaked for now. Gold flashes a ‘buy’ signal.
Current market conditions are weighing on the investor favorite.
The S&P 500 SPX ran into some trouble at the start of September – often cited as the worst month, historically, for the stock market. But the index is finding support in the 6,340-to-6,360 area, and this sets the stage for another move to new all-time highs. There’s additional support at 6,200 and 6,150.
Even though the SPX chart remains positive, we are still seeing negative signals from some internal indicators (as well as some positive signals, too). The McMillan volatility band (MVB) sell signal, for example, is still in play. It would be stopped out by a close above the +4
Nvidia sell-signal
Current market conditions are weighing on an investor favorite: Nvidia (NVDA). Indicators have turned negative for the tech giant. The hype surrounding the company seems to be over, and a put-call-ratio sell signal has appeared. Because of the price of the options, we are going to utilize a spread – a put bear spread, in this case.
Buy 1 NVDA (Nov. 21) 170 put and sell 1 NVDA (Nov. 21) 145 put in line with the market.
We will hold these spreads as long as the original put-call-ratio signal is in place.
Gold is a buy
Even though gold (GC00) has been on a tear, a put-call-ratio buy signal is now in effect. Since the options are high-priced, we are going to use a spread via the SPDR Gold Shares ETF GLD.
Buy 1 GLD (Nov. 21) 326 call and sell 1 GLD (Nov. 21) 343 call in line with the market.
Stocks climb a wall of worry
Equity-only put-call ratios have turned down over the past several days, and that is a positive sign for stocks. The weighted ratio, in fact, has confirmed a new buy signal, but the standard ratio has not. The confirmation that I am referring to is from the computer programs that we use to analyze these charts. In any case, both have rolled over – that terminates the previous sell signals and sets these back on buy signals.
Market breadth has not improved, however. The breadth oscillators keep toying with buy signals, but they have not been able to follow through with any sort of meaningfully positive breadth. As a result, these oscillators are on sell signals. That is not what one would like to see with SPX near or at its all-time highs.
Realized volatility is still slightly bearish. That is, the 20-day historical volatility of SPX (HV20) had risen to 12% from a low of 6%. That is a sell signal. However, in the past couple of days, it’s back down to 10%, as SPX continues to hover near its highs. If HV20 were to fall back to 8%, this sell signal would be stopped out.
On a more positive note, new highs on the NYSE continue to outpace new lows, and that is bullish for stocks. New highs numbered more than 100 issues on each of the seven trading days leading up to Sept. 3, even including that big down day on Sept. 2. This indicator’s buy signal will remain in place unless new lows outnumber new highs on the NYSE for two consecutive days.
The implied-volatility complex has generally been bullish for the market, and that continues to be the case. The “spike peak” buy signal is a trading signal that “expires” after 22 trading days. The most recent buy signal was on Aug. 4, so those 22 days are now completed, and this position is being sold. The indicator returns to a neutral status – waiting for the next spike to occur on the VIX chart.
The trend of VIX VIX buy signal for stocks is still in place. It will remain so unless VIX closes above its 200-day moving average for two consecutive days. That moving average is currently at 19.10. On Sept. 2, VIX moved above its 200-day average, but finished well below it when the market rallied into the close that day.
The construct of volatility derivatives has remained very bullish in its outlook for stocks as well. The term structures of the Cboe volatility indices and of the VIX futures continue to slope steeply upward. Moreover, VIX futures are trading at a healthy premium to VIX.
In summary, the SPX chart remains in a bullish mode, and that is our most important indicator. We are also trading other indicators, where signals are mixed. Continue to roll options that are deeply in the money.
Follow-up actions:
All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.
We are using a standard rolling procedure for our SPY SPY spreads: In any vertical bull or bear spread, if the underlying hits the short strike, then roll the entire spread. That would be roll up in the case of a call bull spread or roll down in the case of a bear put spread. Stay in the same expiration and keep the distance between the strikes the same unless otherwise instructed.
Also, for outright long options, roll if they become 8 points in-the-money.
Long 2 APH (APH) (Sept. 19) 110 calls: The closing stop remains at 105.
Long 1 TSEM (TSEM) (Sept. 19) 60 call: Continue to hold.
Long 1 expiring SPY (Sept. 5) 645 call and short 1 SPY (Sep. 5) 665 call: This position is the trend of VIX buy signal. Roll to the Sept. 26 spread with the same strikes. Stop out if VIX closes above 19 for two consecutive days.
Long 5 SVXY SVXY (Sept. 19) 47 calls: We monitor the weighted VIX futures premium via a proprietary calculation. Specifically, the calculation is currently at 2.13. This trade would be stopped out if it drops to 0.50 or lower.
Long 1 SPY (Sept. 19) 647 call and short 1 SPY (Sept. 19) 660 call: We will hold until new lows outnumber new highs on two consecutive days on the NYSE.
Long 4 ATAI (Sept. 19) 2.5 calls: Stop out if ATAI (ATAI) closes below $4.20.
Long 5 OPEN (Sept. 19) 2.5 calls: Stop out if OPEN (OPEN) closes below $3.95.
Long 1 SPY (Sept. 19) 635 put and short 1 SPY (Sept. 19) 595 put: This position was bought in line with the equity-only put-call-ratio sell signals. Those ratios remain on sell signals, so continue to hold.
Long 1 SPY (Sept. 19) 635 call and short 1 SPY (Sept. 19) 655 call: This spread was bought in line with the “spike peak” buy signal. This trade has been held for 22 trading days from the time of the original signal (Aug. 4). Sell this spread now, since it has met the optimal holding period of 22 days.
Long 4 XLF (Nov. 21) 53 calls: We will hold this position as long as the weighted put-call ratio of XLF XLF remains on a buy signal.
Long 1 SPY (Sept. 12) 636 put and short 1 SPY (Sept. 12) 611 put: This is based on the breadth oscillator sell signals. We will hold this position as long as both breadth oscillators remain on sell signals. That status will be updated weekly.
Long 6 PPL (Oct. 17) 37 calls: We will hold these calls as long as the weighted put-call ratio of PPL (PPL) remains on a buy signal.
Long 4 LUV (Oct. 17) 32.5 calls: We will hold these calls as long as the put-call-ratio chart for LUV (LUV) is on a buy signal.
Long 2 SPLG (Oct. 17) 76 straddles: Initially, we will hold without a stop, but we intend to risk a maximum of about half the straddle price. Meanwhile, if the underlying trades at either three points higher or three points lower, then roll that side. For example, if SPLG SPLG trades up to 79, then roll the Oct 76 calls up to the Oct 79 calls; if it trades down to 73, then roll the puts down.
All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.
Send questions to: lmcmillan@optionstrategist.com.
Lawrence G. McMillan is president of McMillan Analysis, a registered investment and commodity trading advisor. McMillan may hold positions in securities recommended in this report, both personally and in client accounts. He is an experienced trader and money manager and is the author of “Options as a Strategic Investment.” www.optionstrategist.com
(c)McMillan Analysis Corporation is registered with the SEC as an investment advisor and with the CFTC as a commodity trading advisor. The information in this newsletter has been carefully compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. The officers or directors of McMillan Analysis Corporation, or accounts managed by such persons may have positions in the securities recommended in the advisory.
-Lawrence G. McMillan
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09-06-25 1220ET
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