aging floods have uprooted hundreds of thousands of people in Pakistan. Monsoon rains in August brought deluges from different directions. During first half of the month, Gilgit and Hunza were battered by intense rain spells on mountains that rolled down huge snow mass, boulders, mud and landslides. Scores of tourists lost their lives and hundreds were stranded in Chilas, Astore and adjoining areas for several days before being rescued. Buner, Shangla and Swat endured devastation due to abnormally high rains and flash floods in the third week of August. More than 300 people perished in these districts. The fury of monsoon barrelled towards the Punjab and Sindh in the last week of August, when torrential spates descending from India generated catastrophic floods after causing rampage in Himachal Pradesh, the Punjab and Jammu and Kashmir. A prodigious flood then took strides towards Sindh, which has not yet fully recovered.
In 2010 and 2022, Sindh witnessed excruciating deluges. The 2022 flood was the worst ever in recent history affecting over 14 million people. More than two million houses were damaged or destroyed. Around 20,000 schools were damaged. Additionally, a large number of flood protection structures, roads and drinking water schemes were vandalised due to exceptional flows and stagnant sheets of knee-deep water for months. In 2010, more than seven million people were affected in Sindh.
Although, the two floods differed in their attributes, mass devastation was the common outcome. Since then, Sindh has had four high floods at the Guddu Barrage (exceeding 500,000 cusecs). This will be the fifth high flood and could swell to a super flood of 800,000 cusecs—last time experienced in 2010. These two floods exposed a lack of ability to mitigate the catastrophic impact and manage a humongous number of flood affected living in the camps. The enormity of the disaster dwarfed the capacity of the government as hundreds of thousands of flood affected remained shelterless for several months.
Both Guddu and Sukkur Barrages can safely pass a flow of one million cusecs. Nevertheless, the authorities are likely to adopt a more conservative approach. They might opt for an artificial breach, if the flow is seen approaching the super flood level. The Guddu and Sukkur Barrages are critically important for the province so that no government will risk possible damage to these structures. The Punjab, too, resorted to similar action to save the Qadirabad Barrage when Chenab exceeded the design discharge of the structure. Even if the flows remain within design discharge of Guddu and Sukkur Barrages, medium to high flood will displace thousands of families residing within the floodplain, locally called the katcha area.
Floodplains of the Indus are massively encroached in the Punjab and Sindh. This poses a risk to flood protection infrastructure. These encroachments include sprawling settlements and agriculture fields protected through illegally constructed dykes within the river bed. Influential people have illegally occupied large parcels of land in the floodplain.
Floodplains of the Indus are massively encroached in the Punjab and Sindh, posing a risk to flood protection infrastructure.
A report of the Flood Inquiry Commission constituted by the Supreme Court includes detailed observations on such encroachments. The report reads: “Thousands of acres of katcha lands have been illegally encroached upon by local influentials or have been leased out on nominal charges resulting in the erection of private bunds. Construction of houses and other built-up properties have been allowed along river banks and canals etc. The natural flow of water has been blocked. Unfortunately, the local and provincial governments have themselves indulged in encouraging illegal acts promoting encroachments. All such encroachments have contributed to obstructions in the flow of water resulting in flooding of many areas. Under the law, no construction of any infrastructure is allowed to be erected within a distance of 200 feet from banks of the rivers/ streams. The governments must correct that and ensure that no encroachments are permitted and no acquired lands are sold or leased out. Actions should be initiated by governments to remove all encroachments with a firm hand. It should also ensure that all such illegally constructed structures on government lands, which had been destroyed by the recent floods, are not allowed to be re-erected.”
In January 2021, the Sindh High Court also ordered that the removal of encroachments from the land of the Irrigation Department should be completed by June 30, 2021. On January 14, 2020, the SHC had directed the Sindh government to remove encroachments within a period of one month. After the devastating floods of 2022, the SHC issued another order in June 2023, asking the Sindh government to remove 11 obstructions in the waterway from Balochistan to Manchhar Lake. However, the provincial government demonstrated remarkable consistency in inaction.
In 2013, the Sindh Irrigation and Drainage Authority developed a Regional Master Plan for the Left Bank of Indus. The consultants identified about a dozen blocked natural waterways and recommended their revival at an estimated cost of $357.5 million. For further relief, a storm water drainage network was proposed in the leftover areas at a cost of $253.1 million. The amount is only a fraction of the losses Sindh suffered in 2022 due to blocked waterways.
Encroachments on floodplain and blocked waterways are major causes of flood damage in the province. Administrative laxity, nepotism, corruption, political interference and lack of preparedness are other reasons that aggravate miseries of flood affected communities.
In August, Guddu Barrage safely passed two high floods of over 500,000 cusecs. While that necessitated temporary displacement of communities in the katcha area, it also brought smiles to a population of over two million people living in the deltaic districts of Sindh. After a year of dry bed, the Indus below the Kotri Barrage received a healthy flow of over 100,000 cusecs for several days. The much needed environmental flows in katcha and delta of Indus is expected to rehabilitate ecological impairment, at least for this year.
The first half of September is a challenging time for Sindh, when a very high flood will test embankments and administrative preparedness of the province.
The writer is a civil society professional. He can be reached at nmemon2004@yahoo.com.