In a virtual launch on December 16, UC Santa Barbara’s 2035 Initiative unveiled a detailed roadmap for a seemingly obvious target of climate action: cleaning up the industrial sector.
Titled The Clean Heat Climate Opportunity, the new report maps out a pathway for electrifying low- and medium-temperature industrial heat — the kind used in making everything from paper and plastics to beer and frozen pizza. And the findings are clear: This shift could slash U.S. climate pollution by as much as 26 percent in key sectors while unlocking nearly half a trillion dollars in public health benefits by 2050.
“To hit our climate goals, it’s not just cars and buildings that need to go electric — it’s also big factories,” said Leah C. Stokes, one of the report’s principal investigators and an Associate Professor at UCSB. “Most of what we eat, drink, and use every day gets made with heat from burning fossil fuels. Fortunately, we can swap out dirty technologies with clean alternatives like electric heat pumps that can cut pollution, improve air quality, and modernize U.S. manufacturing.”
As stated early on in the presentation, industrial operations account for roughly a quarter of America’s greenhouse gas emissions, and the U.S. is second only to China as the world’s largest emitter.
Enter the 2035 Initiative, UCSB’s own “think-and-do tank,” which blends engineering models, public policy research, and on-the-ground engagement to accelerate climate solutions. This particular project was co-led as principal investigators by Stokes and Professor Eric Masanet, who holds the Mellichamp Chair in Sustainability Science for Emerging Technologies.
“The industrial sector is complex, which often makes smart policy hard to design,” Masanet said. “Our engineering models cut through that complexity to pinpoint opportunities that are both realistic and actionable in real-world plants.”
According to the report, electrifying heat processes in three energy-intensive sectors — chemicals, pulp and paper, and food and beverage — could cut cumulative emissions by 930 to 1,320 million metric tons of CO₂-equivalent through 2050. That’s up to 26 percent of the climate pollution from major facilities in these sectors.
And there is financial incentive. The analysis estimates $288 billion to $475 billion in avoided public health costs from reduced air pollutants like nitrogen oxides and fine particulate matter. These emissions are linked to respiratory illness, heart disease, and cancer.
“These programs are the future of our country,” said Senator Martin Heinrich (D-NM), who spoke during the launch event alongside Senator Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI). “People want hot showers and cold beer — same approach to the industrial sector.” Heinrich expanded that to mean that we can get the same output with a cleaner, and more cost-effective, setup.
Whitehouse didn’t mince words about the stakes. “Don’t buy the lie that clean energy is expensive,” he said. “The Trump administration lies about the cost.”
The report lands at a time when federal climate policy is being sharply reversed. Since returning to office, President Trump has cut billions from key clean energy programs, including the $7 billion “Solar for All” initiative aimed at low-income households, and canceled hundreds of Department of Energy awards that had supported battery production, hydrogen hubs, and EV manufacturing. The administration has also paused new approvals for wind energy — including offshore — while ramping up fossil fuel development on federal lands. Lawsuits challenging these moves are now playing out in courts across the country.
“States can unlock progress on industrial electrification today,” said Stokes. “Making electric heat technologies more affordable lets more facilities swap out dirty fossil fuel boilers for clean electric options.”
Energy efficiency upgrades, meanwhile, are a no-brainer according to the duo. Measures like steam system optimization and process controls can shrink electricity demand while boosting savings for businesses.
This work is part of a growing portfolio at the 2035 Initiative, which is also developing global climate opinion maps, working on grid resilience for vulnerable communities, and tracking climate concern in small island nations.
Though headquartered on UCSB’s campus, the Initiative’s work aims to reach Washington, D.C. “This roadmap is meant to show policymakers where the low-hanging fruit is,” Stokes said. “There are facilities across the country that should start looking at swapping out their fossil fuels ASAP because it might save them money.”
For more information, visit this link.
