The prices home buyers pay now could pale in comparison to what they’ll pay in just five years’ time. Picture: Tim Hunter.
Australia is on the cusp of a property divide like never before, with explosive figures warning values in many suburbs are poised to double by 2030 even as other areas brace for huge price drops.
The bombshell findings come from PropTrack modelling, which projected what homes across every capital city and suburb would cost by 2030 if recent growth patterns returned.
The picture is terrifying for anyone still trying to crack the property market.
REA Group economist Angus Moore said prices weren’t done climbing.
He noted that if prices continued to grow at the same rate as the past five years, buyers would pay about 61 per cent more in Sydney, 68 per cent more in Brisbane and 75 per cent more in Adelaide by 2030.
Melbourne prices would be 17 per cent higher, Perth prices would go up by 66 per cent and in Hobart and Canberra the rise would be about 40 per cent.
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High stakes auctions have put continued pressure on home buyers to pay more. Picture: Sam Ruttyn
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Mr Moore said the modelling was not a forecast but highlighted “how strong the past five years have been, particularly for what were once more affordable markets”.
SYDNEY
If you think Sydney property is expensive now, brace yourself: the average house price is on track to hit $2.4m by 2030 — nearly $1m more than today — if the recent five-year pattern repeats.
PropTrack’s suburb-by-suburb breakdown shows some areas are careening toward price doubles, blowing Sydney’s affordability crisis into uncharted territory.
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Sydney units, which are in greater supply, were likely to underperform houses.
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Another half-decade like 2020–2025 would leave Sydney houses more than double Melbourne prices — despite the cities having similar populations. Sydney prices would also be almost $1m higher than in Brisbane, even with the Olympics-fuelled growth expected there.
Units are projected to rise by only about $80,000 over the next five years.
Mr Moore said Sydney growth came from a cocktail of chronic undersupply, booming population growth, strong employment, and cashed-up upgraders armed with fresh equity.
Suburbs on track to double include Sylvania Waters, Waverley, Warrawee, and southwest pockets such as Denham Court, Oakdale and Leppington.
MELBOURNE
In Melbourne, it’s the family-friendly suburbs, not the blue-chip enclaves, poised to boom.
PropTrack’s modelling showed Lower Plenty, Diamond Creek, Beaconsfield, Romsey and Mentone outperforming blue chip Toorak, where the median house price is currently about $4.71m.
Toorak is tipped to gain $220,000, but outer-suburban pockets could see jumps of $350,000 or more.
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Prices could rise above $1m across many Melbourne suburbs.
More than 50 new suburbs are on track to join Melbourne’s million-dollar club within the five-year period, including Taylors Hill, Berwick, Reservoir, Altona North and Heidelberg Heights.
Buyers’ advocate Emily Wallace said the shift reflected families chasing space. “Not necessarily first-home buyers, but home buyers wanting a yard for the kids.”
Melbourne’s median dwelling price, based on sales of townhouses, houses and units, was projected to rise beyond $1m by 2030.
Mr Moore said Melbourne’s slower growth was the result of faster home building.
BRISBANE AND GOLD COAST
Queensland is set for the most eye-watering increases of all.
The typical home price is on track to soar 84 per cent to $1.53m by 2030 if the past five years repeat.
Brisbane has already become Australia’s most expensive capital after Sydney and more growth would see the market pull even further ahead of most of the country.
Some suburb prices could double, particularly across Logan, Wide Bay and Central Queensland.
Twelve of the state’s current cheapest markets are projected to have prices near $1m by 2030. Logan’s Kooralbyn is one of the standouts: its units could leap from a $291,000 median to $946,000, a rise of 225 per cent.
Queensland prestige suburbs were projected to have extreme rises: Surfers Paradise houses would cost an average of $9m in five years, while in Mermaid Beach it would be $6.4m. Prices in Brisbane suburb New Farm would be $5.26m.
Prestige agent Russell Rollington said $9m for Surfers Paradise was “ambitious but possible”. He cited a recent $7m off-market sub-penthouse sale, which was more than double its 2020 price.
ADELAIDE
According to the report, if history repeats, Adelaide’s median house price could increase from its current $841,000 median to a whopping $1.464m, based on the 75 per cent growth it has demonstrated over the past five years.
Those looking to buy a unit will also need a significantly larger deposit if unit prices increase by the 64 per cent they have in the past five years. The median unit price would go from the current $573,000 to an eye-watering $938,000.
Adelaide was once one of the most affordable cities, but it has flipped into one of the more expensive.
Adelaide houses would be the third-most expensive in the nation with a median of $1.47m, behind Sydney at $2.4m and Brisbane at $1.54m.
Homeowners in Adelaide’s northern suburbs look set to be the biggest winners.
Another 209 per cent increase – the growth seen there over the past five years – would take Davoren Park’s median to $1.578m.
Elizabeth North and Elizabeth Downs houses weren’t far behind, with prices up 197 per cent and 193 per cent respectively.
HOBART
About half of Hobart’s suburbs would have $1m median house prices by 2030 if five-year growth trends repeated. They included Dodges Ferry and Rokeby, among others.
The citywide median house price in Hobart would be $1m and the median unit price would be $738,000.
DARWIN
Darwin house prices would average $756,000 by 2030 and Darwin unit prices would average $451,000.
Territory home prices are expected to surge by up to 107 per cent by 2030 if the pandemic price boom is replicated.
The top performer of 2030 was expected to be the Muirhead house market, with 107 per cent growth across five years and the median house price jumping from $730,000 to $1.512m, based on trends since the pandemic boom.
REA Group economist Angus Moore said more housing supply was needed to moderate prices.
Meanwhile, Dundee Beach would likely see the average cost of a house hit $564,000, up 66 per cent from the current median of $340,000.