Incoming NGSO services shift sector norms, driving 63% of commercial aviation IFC by 2034
Paris, France [September, 2025] – Novaspace’s latest report, the 13th edition of its Prospects for In-Flight Connectivity Report, finds NGSO services poised to revolutionize in-flight connectivity standards. NGSO’s share of commercial aviation IFC is set to skyrocket from just 1% in 2024 to 63% by 2034, driving 76% of total operator revenues by decade’s end.
“2024 was a transitional year,” says Vishal Patil, Project Manager at Novaspace. “While most installations still relied on GEO-based systems due to legacy contracts, the momentum is clearly shifting. Starting in 2025, we expect NGSO networks to begin replacing older GEO Ku/Ka-band and ATG systems at scale.”
As NGSO networks enter the IFC market in full force, competition is expected to intensify, driving aircraft ARPA stabilization. However, with the drop in capacity pricing increasing pressure on service providers, the market is positioned for further vertical integration via mergers and acquisitions.
Major strategic moves are already underway to capitalize on the NGSO trend. High-profile partnerships such as the SES-Intelsat merger and the Intelsat-Eutelsat-OneWeb alliance are paving the way for multi-orbit service offerings. These hybrid models aim to combine the reliability of GEO and its ability to densify supply over high-demand areas, with the performance advantages of LEO, offering a best-of-both-worlds solution.
Business and General Aviation operators and commercial airlines are increasingly opting for these multi-orbit models, though the rollout remains constrained by equipment readiness. Many terminals are still in early development stages and yet to be flight-proven at scale, presenting a temporary bottleneck in widespread adoption.
Overall, the number of connected aircraft is set to exceed 67,700 by 2034. Airlines are now actively assessing ways to monetize this IFC revolution as players increasingly move towards providing either full or partially free IFC services. As the market enters this new phase, NGSO adoption will redefine connectivity standards in aviation. To remain competitive, players must adapt quickly with a focus on hardware innovation, strategic alliances, and service differentiation.
About the Report
Novaspace’s Prospects for In-Flight Connectivity details the latest trends in cabin connectivity within the commercial and business aviation industries. The report examines key developments in the service providers’ market shares, the impact of new entrants on the industry, equipment market, and regulations. With a comprehensive 10-year forecast, Prospects for In-Flight Connectivity evaluates each segment for addressable market, IFC active aircraft, capacity usage, service ARPA, service revenues, Capacity ARPU, and operator revenues.
The Classic edition provides access to our in-depth market intelligence report and associated data. The Premium edition adds an IFC database detailing the connectivity status of more than 30,000 commercial aircraft at year-end, quarterly updates of the IFC database, and a proprietary database of speed tests conducted on several flights globally.
Access the full report here: https://nova.space/hub/product/prospects-for-in-flight-entertainment-connectivity/
About Novaspace
Novaspace is a global leader in space consulting and market intelligence, formed through the merger of Euroconsult and SpaceTec Partners. This strategic move combines the distinctive strengths of both entities to significantly amplify our international presence and service capabilities. With over 40-year legacy of expertise in guiding public and private entities in strategic decision-making, Novaspace offers end-to-end consulting services, from project strategy definition to implementation, providing data-led perspectives on critical issues. Novaspace presents an expanded portfolio of services, featuring combined expertise in management and technology consulting, top-tier executive summits, and market intelligence. Trusted by 1,200 clients in over 60 countries, with offices strategically located in Brussels, London, Montreal, Munich, Paris, Singapore, Sydney, Tokyo, Toulouse, and Washington D.C.
Media Enquiries:
Olivia Garnier | Communications Lead – olivia.garnier@nova.space