By 2030, a third of new heavy-duty vehicles have to be zero-emission to reach the -45% CO2 target (31% based on our modelling, 35% according to ACEA). Reaching that level will require a strong policy framework. While ACEA attributes today’s slower-than-expected ZET uptake to a lack of enabling conditions such as “competitive charging prices, dedicated incentives, CO2-based road user chargers”, they do not mention that all truckmakers have so far prioritised cleaner ICE trucks instead of zero-emission trucks as their main pathway to compliance, and use this slower uptake as a reason to call they call on EU policymakers to review the CO2 targets earlier than 2027. The clear lead from Volvo Group in scaling up electric truck sales is proof it can be done.
Reviewing the HDV CO2 standards early would be a mistake as too little data on manufacturer compliance will be available. The 2026 reporting period, running from July 2026 to June 2027, will be the first year when manufacturers will have to meet the -15% CO2 target without the use of emission credits earned before 2025. The ICCT analysis suggests that such credits will be key for Renault Trucks, DAF, and MAN to easily comply in 2025 without additional efforts. So how manufacturers ramp up sales of electric trucks in 2026 once pre-2025 credits have been used up will be essential information to assess market readiness.
Instead of an earlier review of the standards, EU and national policymakers should accelerate their work on key measures such as: