If you have been watching Kaspi.kz (NasdaqGS:KSPI), the recent drop in share price might have prompted you to take a closer look. While there has not been a single headline-grabbing event or dramatic announcement making waves, the recent movement could leave investors wondering whether there is a deeper signal or just some temporary volatility at play.
Taking a step back, Kaspi.kz shares have been under pressure this year, with the stock down more than 30% over the past twelve months and showing little momentum in recent weeks. Even so, it is hard to ignore the strong revenue and net income growth reported annually, as well as the fact that the longer-term, three-year return remains well above seven times the initial investment. This hints at substantial growth potential beneath the surface.
So is this recent weakness a window for investors to buy in at a discount, or is the market simply adjusting expectations to reflect all of Kaspi.kz’s future growth prospects?
The current dominant narrative views Kaspi.kz as significantly undervalued, with analyst expectations implying the stock trades at a large discount to its fair value.
Continued expansion and high engagement in payments, marketplace, and fintech super-app ecosystem are fueling cross-selling and deeper user integration. This is supporting higher long-term take rates and sustained revenue expansion.
Want to know what gives this narrative its conviction? The bullish case hinges on aggressive top and bottom line growth assumptions that forecast a future profit multiple below industry averages. What does the underlying growth blueprint look like, and how do analysts justify this high upside? Only a deeper dive will reveal which forward metrics are driving that discounted fair value.
Result: Fair Value of $112.84 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, rising competition in key markets and unpredictable regulatory shifts could undermine Kaspi.kz’s growth momentum and could reshape future earnings projections.
Find out about the key risks to this Kaspi.kz narrative.
Taking a different approach, our DCF model also points to Kaspi.kz being undervalued. This supports earlier valuation signals in another way. Could both methods be highlighting something significant, or is there more beneath the surface?
Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.
Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Kaspi.kz for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match – so you never miss a potential opportunity.