By Dow Jones Newswires staff
Below are the most important global events likely to affect FX and bond markets in the week starting Sept. 15.
A meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to result in an interest-rate cut after a long pause, with investors likely to focus on the pace of rate reductions after that.
Interest-rate decisions are also due during the week in Japan, Canada and the U.K., among others.
Investors will parse through a raft of economic data releases from China for clues on how the world's second-largest economy is grappling with slowing global growth amid tariff-related uncertainties.
U.S.
The Federal Reserve announces a decision on Wednesday and is widely expected to resume cutting interest rates after recent data revealed weak U.S. jobs data.
A 25 basis-point rate reduction to 4.00-4.25% is widely anticipated, although there is an outside chance of a larger 50 basis-point cut.
Concerns about labor-market weakness are expected to offset worries about inflation. Policymakers might consider that price pressures remain contained for now although they will likely acknowledge risks.
"Despite inflation running above the Fed's 2% target, last week's weaker-than-expected nonfarm payroll figures, coupled with revised data showing 911,000 fewer jobs created in the 12 months to March, have strengthened the likelihood of monetary policy easing," said Richard Flax, chief investment officer at Moneyfarm, in a note.
Investors will also scrutinize accompanying comments for any signals on how fast rates will fall from here. U.S. money markets almost fully price in follow-up rate reductions in October and December, LSEG data show.
Analysts at Citi expect that signs of cooling inflation will keep policymakers focused on supporting a weak labor market. They anticipate five consecutive rate reductions to 3.00%-3.25%, but said it is possible rates could fall below 3.00%.
However, TD Securities strategists said Fed Chair Jerome Powell could signal that the Fed "isn't on a pre-determined path to cut interest rates and will keep monitoring incoming data."
President Trump has called for the Fed to cut interest rates over recent months, raising concerns among investors about the central bank's independence being eroded. Trump recently moved to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook and his administration is racing to sideline her before next week's policy meeting.
Other U.S. economic data due during the week include August retail sales and industrial production on Tuesday, followed by August housing starts on Wednesday and weekly jobless claims figures Thursday.
Canada
The Bank of Canada is expected to reduce interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.5% in a decision on Wednesday due to data showing a weak labor market, concerns about the economic impact of U.S. trade tariffs and evidence of relatively contained inflation.
Ahead of the decision, Canadian CPI inflation figures for August are due Tuesday.
These figures are unlikely to stop the BOC from cutting its policy rate, analysts at TD Securities said in a note.
"We see a high bar for this data to impact the bank's decision on rates," they said, adding that it would require a "sharp rebound" across various measures of core CPI to raise any doubts about a prospective rate cut.
Canadian retail sales data are due Friday, while August housing starts figures are released Tuesday.
Latin America
Brazil's central bank announces a decision on Wednesday and is expected to leave the Selic rate unchanged at 15.0%, pausing after recent rate increases.
"As things stand, we think it's most likely that Copom leaves the Selic rate at 15.00% until the turn of the year," said Capital Economics emerging market economist Kimberley Sperrfechter in a note.
Policymakers will be monitoring moves in the Brazilian currency amid concerns about the impact of tariffs, however, she said.
Eurozone
Germany's ZEW economic sentiment data for September are due on Tuesday.
Second-estimate Italian CPI inflation for August is due on Tuesday, while the equivalent data for the eurozone are scheduled for Wednesday.
"We expect [eurozone inflation] to remain unchanged from its flash estimates," HSBC analysts said in a note. "While the flash headline CPI print surprised slightly on the upside, we still believe that overall inflation will fall 2% next year, due to the stronger euro," they said.
Germany publishes producer price inflation data for August on Friday, while Spain releases industrial orders figures for July. Also on Friday, France's monthly business survey for September is due, a key insight into businesses' well-being in light of the recent change in government.
The Eurogroup meeting of eurozone finance ministers, as well as an informal Ecofin meeting of EU finance ministers, is due on Friday.
The German Finance Agency will publish its quarterly funding review on Thursday.
Germany will auction October 2030 Bobl on Tuesday, and August 2038 and August 2056 Bunds on Wednesday.
Other sovereign-bond issuers are Slovakia and Finland on Tuesday, Greece on Wednesday, and Spain and France on Thursday.
U.K.
The Bank of England announces an interest-rate decision on Thursday and is widely expected to leave rates on hold at 4.0% due to elevated inflation.
Focus will center on any signals about when interest rates could fall again. U.K. money markets currently only price in around a 36% chance of another interest-rate cut in 2025. Some analysts see a risk of another reduction in the coming months, however, due to the U.K.'s weak economy.
In that regard, U.K. jobs and wages data on Tuesday, followed by August inflation figures Wednesday, will be closely scrutinized ahead of the BOE's announcement.
Investec economist Philip Shaw said policymakers still have "collective doubts over whether the inflationary coast is clear to resume easing" and this could well prevent rates from rising for the rest of this year. Rate cuts should resume next year, however, he said.
The BOE is also expected to make a decision on quantitative tightening and to announce a reduction in the pace of sovereign-bond sales.
U.K. retail sales and public finances data for August are due Friday, alongside the GfK consumer confidence indicator for September.
The U.K. plans to sell government bonds maturing in January 2040 on Tuesday.
Scandinavia
Norway announces an interest-rate decision on Thursday, where most expect a 25 basis-point reduction in the key rate to 4.0%. A rate cut isn't a done deal, however, after higher-than-expected inflation data for August raise some doubts about this prospect.
"We expect the Norges Bank to cut its policy rate for the second time this year next week, but we see it as a close call," Citi analysts said in a note.
Sweden will auction inflation-linked bonds on Thursday.
South Africa
The South African Reserve Bank announces an interest rate decision on Thursday.
Citi analysts expect the main repo rate to be kept at 7.0%.
"The SARB is likely to retain a tolerance for inflation in its rhetoric, but this must not be mistaken for a dovish stance in our view; we forecast rates unchanged as the SARB aims for its new lower preferred target of 3.0% over the next 18-24 months," they said.
Japan
The Bank of Japan is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at 0.5% at its two-day meeting ending Friday as domestic political uncertainty rises. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's decision to step down has fueled speculation that a new premier could favor easier monetary policy.
Economists still expect the central bank to resume tightening soon as inflation proves sticky and trade headwinds ease. Data for the week are likely to underscore persistent price pressures: Consumer prices excluding fresh food are expected to have risen 2.7% in August from a year earlier, down from July's 3.1% gain, according to a poll by data provider Quick.
Japan will also release August trade balance figures. The Ministry of Finance is set to auction 800 billion yen of 20-year Japanese government bonds on Wednesday, alongside sales of 1-year treasury discount bills and three-month bills on Thursday. Markets will be closed Monday for a national holiday.
Australia/New Zealand
In Australia, bond markets will focus on August employment data due Thursday, amid concerns that the labor market may be at a turning point. With government hiring cooling, the private sector is under pressure to sustain job growth. Economists say there is a growing risk that unemployment will move higher over the coming months. Uncertainty in the global economy could be a reason for why the private sector becomes hesitant to add employees, they say.
New Zealand will release second-quarter GDP data on Thursday, with economists expecting a 0.3% contraction, leaving growth flat for the year. Despite 250 basis points of rate cuts since mid-2024, recession risks remain. Economists expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to continue easing, with the next policy meeting set for early October.
China
A slate of August data is in focus for China, as markets look for insight into how the economy is faring midway through the third quarter. The country will announce figures for industrial output and retail sales on Monday, along with its latest figures for fixed assets investment and housing prices.
Economists in a Wall Street Journal poll project industrial production edged up to 5.8% on year last month. Retail sales are expected to have improved to 4.4% on year, signalling improvement in consumer demand. But fixed-asset investment is projected to have slowed to 1.3% in the year to date, raising concerns that a dip below 1% could prompt further policy support, Citi economists note.
Housing price data and property investment figures will be closely watched for signs of stabilization. ING economists expect housing prices to confirm a continued downturn, noting that August will test whether July's weakness was weather-related or the start of a deeper slump.
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September 14, 2025 17:14 ET (21:14 GMT)
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