EMEA Morning Briefing: Markets Await Central Bank Rate Decisions

MARKET WRAPS

Watch For:

EU foreign trade; no major corporate trading updates expected

Opening Call:

European stock futures were flat early Monday as markets look ahead to a number of major central bank decisions this week. Asian stock benchmarks edged higher; the dollar rose; oil futures gained; while gold fell slightly.

Equities:

Stock futures were little changed at the start of the week, as investors await what is expected to be the Federal Reserve’s first interest-rate cut in nine months later this week.

Beyond the expected cut, much attention will be paid to Chair Jerome Powell’s reasoning, and hints at how the Fed will proceed in the coming months, with some experts predicting further rate cuts in October and December.

While rate cuts typically are good for the stock market, there are worries now of the rising risk of stagflation, and that the market may be too far ahead of the Fed’s view on cuts, which could trigger volatility in stocks.

Forex:

The greenback will probably keep weakening ahead of the FOMC’s decision on Wednesday, as market participants position for an expected rate cut that would be the first since December 2024, CBA said.

The foreign-exchange market’s reaction on Thursday will probably depend on whether Powell is “dovish enough,” CBA added.

Bonds:

It seems a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed this week is baked in. But a question still remains about what it will point to in the future. Marc Giannoni, chief U.S. economist for Barclays, said the FOMC will judge that the downside risks to achieving its employment mandate are rising amid still-moderate inflation prints.

The Fed’s economic projections should show little change, but the dot plots may show three 25-basis-point cuts this year, with one cut in 2026 and one in 2027, as well as an unchanged longer-run dot at 3.0%, he added.

Energy:

Oil futures were mixed in Asia amid divergent signals. There are continuing worries over a looming global supply surplus, ING said.

In its latest monthly oil market report, the IEA expects a record oil surplus of more than three million barrels per day in 2026. However, escalating geopolitical tensions after Israel’s attack on Hamas’s leadership in Qatar and prospects of tighter Western sanctions on Russian energy exports could help put a floor under oil prices, the bank added.

Metals:

Gold may rise further after breaking out of a bullish pennant pattern on the daily chart to the upside, Maybank said. Bullish drivers for the precious metal include expectations for the Fed to resume its easing cycle this month and lingering risks of geopolitical conflicts that could spur safe-haven demand, the bank said.

Gold’s weekly close above the $3,500/oz level last week has confirmed a “bullish extension in the making.” Maybank now sees gold rising toward $3,700/oz by end-2025.

Copper is hovering at elevated levels. Base metal prices have risen recently as the prospect of easing monetary policy boosts sentiment, ANZ said.

Copper is targeting resistance at $10,100 a ton, Sucden Financial said. With March’s high of around $10,164 a ton, copper could still strengthen in the near term, it added.

Weak steel demand and continued margin compression at steel mills are capping the upside potential for iron ore, Nanhua Futures said. Any further easing of U.S. interest rates may have limited positive impact as the market has priced in September rate-cut expectations, it added.

   
 
 

TODAY’S TOP HEADLINES

China’s Economy Shows Signs of Summer Slowdown

SINGAPORE-Signs of weakness in China’s economy stretched into August, adding pressure on Beijing to step up efforts to stimulate near-term growth.

Momentum in retail sales, industrial production and investment all slowed, while unemployment ticked up and the housing market continued to struggle, according to data released Monday by the National Bureau of Statistics. China also recently reported slowing export growth and persistent deflation for August.

   
 
 

Wall Street’s ‘Run It Hot’ Trade Powers Stock Records

The coolest trade on Wall Street is known as “run it hot.”

While slowing job growth and tariff-related costs remain primary concerns for investors, the core of the trade lies in betting on an economic resurgence, not a recession. The thinking: Tax cuts and falling interest rates will heat up the economy, fueling a new burst of growth.

   
 
 

Apple and Citadel Fuel London Office Boom

LONDON-Larry Fink complains BlackRock is running out of desks. HSBC’s new tower turned out to be too small. Ken Griffin’s hedge fund, Citadel, signed a lease on a building three years ahead of time.

The office market in London’s ancient commercial quarter-known simply as the City-is booming, fueled by an influx of American law and finance firms, a growing tech scene and demand for the swankiest spaces to lure workers back to their desks.

   
 
 

Big Brands Play Down Their Americanness Abroad

BERLIN-Iconic U.S. brands have a new pitch for European consumers: We’re from here, too.

Over the summer, Coca-Cola wooed Germans with a “made-in-Germany” campaign and stressed its British credentials with a miniseries about mom-and-pop retailers.

   
 
 

How a European Quantum-Computing Start-Up Plans to Take on IBM and Google

Europe is aiming to become the global leader in quantum computing. IQM, a Finnish start-up, is one of the building blocks of that endeavor.

The company generated buzz last week when it announced that it had raised more than $300 million in a funding round led by a U.S. investment firm. That Series B capital raise could be an early sign that investors recognize how the continent has emerged as a hotbed of ingenuity for quantum. Privately traded pure plays are springing up.

   
 
 

Rolling Stone Publisher Sues Google Over AI Summaries

The publisher of Rolling Stone and The Hollywood Reporter has sued Google, alleging that the AI summaries that appear atop search results are illegally using its reporting and depressing online traffic.

Penske Media is the first major U.S. news company to challenge Google and its parent Alphabet in court over its growing use of artificial intelligence, which many publishers have said is damaging their businesses.

   
 
 

Write to singaporeeditors@dowjones.com

   
 
 

Expected Major Events for Monday

05:00/FIN: Aug CPI

06:00/GER: Aug WPI

06:00/ROM: Jul Industrial production

06:00/ROM: 2Q Employment and unemployment

06:00/NOR: Aug External trade in goods

06:30/SWI: Aug Import Price Index

06:30/SWI: Aug PPI

08:00/POL: Jul Merchandise trade

08:00/POL: Aug CPI

08:00/BUL: Aug CPI

08:00/ITA: Jul Foreign Trade EU

09:00/EU: Jul Foreign trade

09:00/CRO: Aug CPI

10:00/FRA: 2Q OECD Quarterly National Accounts G20 GDP growth

10:00/IRL: Jul Goods Exports and Imports

15:59/UKR: Jul Trade

16:59/SWI: 1Q Locational & Consolidated banking statistics

16:59/SWI: 2Q Exchange-traded derivatives statistics

16:59/SWI: 2Q International debt securities statistics

16:59/SWI: 1Q Domestic debt securities statistics

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This article is a text version of a Wall Street Journal newsletter published earlier today.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

September 15, 2025 00:16 ET (04:16 GMT)

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