Value of Australian dollar now dependent on interest rates, commodities prices and geopolitics

The Australian dollar has been on a slow march down from a peak of 109 US cents achieved in July 2011.

The local currency approached 80 US cents during the depths of the COVID-19 emergency in February 2021.

Five years on, it has fallen roughly 12 per cent from that level, now at around 70 US cents.

The depreciation has been significant enough to benefit exporters, while providing a headwind for importers and travellers.

The local currency now sits at a crossroads, especially considering recent geopolitical events.

The key question now is, as it evolves, who will be the winners and losers?

What’s driving the dollar?

The value of the Australian dollar, or the “Aussie” as it’s known in market circles, is driven by several forces. 

They include the interest rate differential between the United States and Australia, the prices of commodities, geopolitical factors, and overall market sentiment.

And when looking specifically at the Australian-US dollar cross rate, the value of the greenback is also important.

While the Australian dollar has been in a steady decline over the past five years, it found strength in 2025, gaining roughly 8 per cent.

In trade-weighted terms, it has also moved from a low of 58.8 US cents in April 2025 to 62.3 in December 2025.

This has largely been driven by firming commodity prices and a weakening US dollar.

Loading…

Weaker greenback

It is the weaker greenback that has been central to the Australian dollar’s gradual increase over the past year.

Indeed, the US dollar index, which tracks the value of the greenback, fell from around 110 in January to as low as 96 in July.

But analysts say further Australian dollar strength will require more than weakness in the US dollar.

“The Aussie dollar is up about 8 per cent for the year while the US dollar index is down about 9 per cent, which highlights that global investors looking for an alternative to the greenback are not enthused by the Aussie, notwithstanding the RBA’s hawkishness,” InTouch Capital Markets senior currency strategist Sean Callow said.

After bottoming again in September, the Australian dollar found further strength for a few months, but since mid-November, a clear narrative has emerged: US interest rates could fall further still, while Australian interest rates may increase.

There’s a positive correlation between a nation’s interest rates and the value of its currency.

The potential for easier US monetary policy and tighter Australian monetary policy is pushing the value of the Aussie dollar higher.

“The Aussie dollar would likely appreciate, especially against low-yield peers, should the RBA remain hawkish amid inflation challenges,” RSM Australia economist Devika Shivadekar said.

But Mr Callow is not expecting the Australian dollar to surge past 70 US cents, for example.

“But a lacklustre global economy should limit Aussie dollar gains to around 0.69 to 0.70 [US cents].”

Mr Shivadekar thinks China’s economy, which is key to global economic growth, will be front and centre in contributing to that “lacklustre” performance.

“Key risks … stem from a China slowdown hurting commodity demand, global risk-off shocks, and a widening rate gap if the Fed/others stay tighter for longer,” she said.

Commodities rising

The Australian dollar’s value also shifts with commodity markets.

While the price of iron ore has been steadily increasing since July, it’s the price of gold and silver that seem to be providing support for the local currency.

While the prices of precious metals have consolidated over the past couple of weeks, their years-long bull run has been impressive.

Gold has surged about 65 per cent in 2025.

Gold is a traditional haven asset that performs well during periods of economic and geopolitical uncertainty and can fall in price when the opposite is true.

Silver rocketed up 182 per cent last calendar year, driven by its critical mineral status, supply shortages and rising industrial and investor demand.

Winners and losers

Businesses that import inventory will be hoping the recent ascent of the Australian dollar will continue.

The rising Aussie reduces their costs.

Exporters, however, will likely want to see the Australian dollar remain firmly under 70 US cents.

The sweet spot for exporters, analysts say, is roughly 65 US cents.

Meanwhile, Australians heading overseas will be keen to see the Australian dollar appreciate further.

The Australian dollar performed very well for Australians in the wake of the global financial crisis of 2008/2009 by rising beyond parity with the US dollar.

And in July 2024, the Australian dollar hit a peak against the Japanese yen, which saw many flock to the country.

The dollar is now down roughly 4 per cent from those levels.

Where to from here?

So how is the Australian dollar expected to perform against the major currencies in the months ahead?

Movements against the yen will depend on Japan’s fiscal and monetary policies, while changes against the Chinese yuan may depend on Australian, US and Chinese trade policies.

The Reserve Bank and the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions will move the Australian dollar against the US dollar.

“It’s easy to see further appreciation, as [a] hawkish RBA vs [a] more dovish US Federal Reserve and downward USD pressure could see the Australian dollar even get up to 70 US cents,” AMP deputy chief economist Diana Mousina said.

“Fair value is more like 72 US cents but it’s hard to see significant upside beyond 70 US as euro and yen benefit more from lower USD and [we need to see] stronger global growth, and China to see [a] higher Australian dollar.”

If US interest rates fall significantly from here and Australian interest rates rise, the dollar, analysts say, will likely move convincingly above 70 US cents.

And US President Donald Trump’s foray into Venezuela puts another spanner in the works of the currency market.

Brace for big moves in commodities prices and currencies in the coming days and months.