This article first appeared on GuruFocus.
The dollar moved to a one-month high as rising US Treasury yields and looming risk events kept investors cautious ahead of Friday’s payrolls report and a possible Supreme Court ruling on President Donald Trump’s tariffs. A four-day advance put the greenback on track for its strongest week since November, while the yen lagged most major peers. Treasuries extended Thursday’s slide, with the 10-year yield rising two basis points to 4.19%, and S&P 500 futures hovered near flat as markets weighed whether upcoming data could challenge expectations for US interest-rate cuts later in 2026.
Equities faced mixed signals as policy headlines and corporate developments pulled sentiment in different directions. Trump’s proposed $200 billion mortgage-bond purchase plan lifted mortgage-linked stocks, with LoanDepot (NYSE:LDI) and Rocket Companies (NYSE:RKT) jumping in premarket trading. In Europe, Glencore (GLNCY) rose more than 8% in London after resuming talks with Rio Tinto (NYSE:RIO) on a potential combination that could create the world’s largest miner, though broader risk appetite remained restrained ahead of two closely timed macro catalysts.
Attention is now centered on December payrolls, where economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect 70,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate easing to 4.5%, data that could shape expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Markets are fully pricing at least two quarter-point rate cuts in 2026, with odds favoring an initial move in April, although traders warned that outcomes at either extreme could unsettle markets. In parallel, investors are monitoring the Supreme Court’s pending decision on Trump’s tariffs, which could allow companies to seek refunds on billions of dollars in duties, while oil, gold, and silver traded cautiously amid developments involving Venezuela and Iran.