A wave of Israel’s allies are announcing their recognition of the state of Palestine, as part of a wider manoeuvre designed to ostracise Hamas and challenge attempts by the Israeli government to erase the chance of a Palestinian homeland.
The UK, Canada and Australia formally declared their recognition of Palestinian statehood on Sunday in separate but coordinated statements. The move marks the first members of the G7 advanced economies to take the step. Portugal was expected to announce its move later on Sunday too.
Other countries also joining the list of 147 UN states that recognise Palestine are Belgium, France, Luxembourg, Malta and possibly New Zealand and Liechtenstein. The other nations are set to make their formal announcement on Monday at a special UN conference to revive the waning cause of a two-state solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Some, including the UK, brought forward their declaration out of respect for the Jewish new year.
The conference is co-chaired by France and Saudi Arabia, but the Saudi crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, is not attending, unlike the French president, Emmanuel Macron.
The delicate and partly symbolic move by as many 10 states, pioneered largely by the French government, has the potential to lead to a negative spiral of further confrontation amid fears Israel will respond by annexing parts of the West Bank, leading in turn to European trade sanctions and further political isolation for Israel, including an ultimate possible suspension from the UN.
The Israeli response is also entangled with whether the US endorses a further attack on Iran in coming weeks over its nuclear programme.
“Canada recognises the state of Palestine and offers our partnership in building the promise of a peaceful future,” the Canadian prime minister, Mark Carney, wrote on X.
Australia’s prime minister, Anthony Albanese, said Canberra’s move “recognises the legitimate and long held aspirations of the people of Palestine to a state of their own”.
The British prime minister, Keir Starmer, said: “In the face of the growing horrors in the Middle East we are acting to keep alive the possibility of peace and a two-state solution. That means a safe and secure Israel, alongside a viable Palestinian state. At the moment we have neither.”
The declarations with various conditions and emphases attached reflect the conflicting domestic pressures on governments as they face a backlash from Israel, and from hostage families that claim the move effectively rewards Hamas for its attack on Israel on 7 October 2023.
António Guterres, the UN secretary general, urged states not to be intimidated by Israel’s threats to annex parts of the West Bank.
But ministers admit decisions have been triggered by the mounting global horror at Israel’s strategy in Gaza, and specifically Israel’s plans to approve new settlements in the part of the West Bank known as the E1 corridor that would cut the territory in two and sever its links with east Jerusalem.
At the centre of the French plan, now fully endorsed by Arab states, is to make recognition part of a wider process, including a reformed, democratically elected Palestinian Authority that in the event of a ceasefire comes to supersede a disarmed and dismantled Hamas in Gaza.
Germany, Italy and some of the Baltic states are the biggest holdouts to recognition, but pressure is rising within the Italian coalition government to risk the ire of the US.
Macron, identified by Israel as the galvanising force behind the surge in recognitions, went on Israel’s Channel 12 to warn “the approach of your government and some ministers especially is to destroy the possibility of a two-state solution.”
He said “an emergency had been created” by the building of new major settlements that meant the world “is at the last minute before proposing two states will become totally impossible”. He insisted recognition was not a reward for Hamas, since the terrorist group wanted an Islamic state and the destruction of Israel, something a two-state solution would preclude.
The US and Israel have been boycotting the meetings leading up to Monday’s UN conference on a two-state solution. At heart of their difference is the Israeli belief that the Palestinian Authority (PA), led by the 86-year-old president, Mahmoud Abbas, can never be a credible partner for peace.
The US state department has tried to block Abbas from speaking from the rostrum at the UN in New York by denying US visas to the PA, a move that triggered a 145 to five vote at the UN general assembly to allow him to speak via a video link. His speech will be watched to see if he elaborates on the commitments to reform he has previously made to Macron, or simply denounces what he regards as a genocide by Israel in Gaza.
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The visa ban is seen widely as a clear breach of the immunities enshrined in longstanding agreements between the UN and US.
Western ministers acknowledge the chief weakness of their plan for the future of a Palestinian state, apart from lack of Israeli support, is the uncertain leverage they have over the PA’s reform and the disarmament of Hamas.
But the French argue the move has already brought concessions by Abbas on deradicalisation, and his denunciation of the 7 October attack as a terrorist act.
Macron claims the plan for the future includes the deployment of a UN-mandated international force to secure Gaza and accelerate and scale up the training of police, with clear vetting by Israel.
His proposals have been roundly rejected by Netanyahu.
Macron offered to visit Israel to explain French thinking, but Netanyahu said first he would have to drop the recognition proposal. This has left the French president warning Netanyahu that the current assault on Gaza City would not achieve its purpose and only undermine Israel’s standing.
He warned that “the latest Israeli operation was leading to so many civilian casualties and victims that you are completely destroying the image and credibility of Israel, not just in the region but in public opinions everywhere”.
He said the risk was that “Hamas becomes the reason never to disagree with your prime minister and your ministers even when they decide crazy things, I am 0% with the Israeli government [when it] says the answer is decide on new settlements in West Bank or to displace populations in Gaza”.
In an attempt to keep the PA reform agenda alive, France along with Saudi Arabia, Norway and Spain is trying to stop Israeli attempts to bankrupt the PA by Israel’s finance ministry retaining billions of dollars owed. The quartet are rallying countries around an emergency aid package to prevent the collapse of the PA. The aim is to raise more than $200m (£148m) over the next six months.
Further West Bank annexation will put special pressure on the United Arab Emirates, which led the moves to normalise relations with Israel through the Abraham accords in 2020. The accords are seen as one of the few achievements of the first Trump administration. The UAE has said annexation is a red line that would end the prospect of regional integration, and has also protested at the bombing of Qatar by Israel earlier this month.