Declining numbers of children across England could lead to the equivalent of 800 primary schools falling empty or being closed by the end of the decade, according to research by a thinktank.
The national decline in pupils at state primary schools is mainly driven by low birthrates but is magnified in London by increasing numbers of people moving out of the capital or leaving the state system to move abroad or send their children to private schools, according to the Education Policy Institute.
The projections come as many councils struggle to keep primary schools open in the face of falling numbers. With school funding linked to pupil numbers, further falls will heighten the wave of mergers and closures that have already affected parts of England.
Jon Andrews, the EPI’s head of analysis, said: “Schools with falling pupil numbers face increasing financial pressures, which can ultimately threaten their long-term viability. This issue emerged first in London, where enrolment declines began earlier than in the rest of the country.”
National birthrates peaked in 2010 and led to larger year groups starting at primary school between 2014 and 2018, with councils hurriedly opening new schools and expanding provision to meet demand. But since then the national birthrate has slowed dramatically.
National primary pupil numbers peaked in 2018-19 at about 4.5 million. Since then the total has fallen by nearly 2%, and over the next five years is forecast to fall a further 4%.
By 2029, the forecasts suggest only 4.24 million primary school pupils will be enrolled, a reduction of 162,000 that would be equivalent to 800 single-form primary schools closing over that period.
Paul Whiteman, the general secretary of the National Association of Head Teachers, urged the government to help councils keep schools open. “This could build capacity for greater inclusion and enable schools to offer smaller classes and more targeted help,” Whiteman said.
Lily Wielar, a researcher at EPI and co-author of the report, said: “Our analysis shows that falling pupil numbers cannot be explained by declining birthrates alone.
“Wider factors – such as the cost of living, housing pressures and regional differences in school provision and quality – are also likely to be shaping where families live and the choices they make.”
London has been hardest hit, with the EPI finding that nine of the 10 local authorities with the largest declines in primary school pupil numbers are in the capital. Islington, Lambeth and Southwark are expected to have the steepest declines in numbers over the next five years.
Looking at the children who started in reception classes in 2017-18, the EPI found that 20% had left state schools in London by the time they would have been in year 6, the final year of primary. It also found that 10% were no longer recorded in the state system, suggesting it “may be the result of post-Brexit migration” or after-effects of the Covid pandemic.
The report added: “Large numbers of pupils leaving the state education system, or what we term ‘missing or permanent leavers’, could reflect the higher proportions of international families in London who are more likely to leave England. They may also indicate that, for London families, independent schools are more of an option than elsewhere.”