The Middle East has in recent weeks witnessed one of its most intense military confrontations in decades: a full-scale war between Iran and Israel that has transformed regional dynamics in ways few could have predicted. This conflict, which was designed to weaken the Iran-led “Axis of Resistance” and consolidate Israel’s regional hegemony, has produced outcomes entirely contrary to what its planners in Washington and Tel Aviv envisioned. Israel’s military superiority, intended to strengthen its geopolitical position, has not only failed to achieve that goal but has also pushed Arab states away from normalizing ties with Israel and toward diplomacy with Iran. These developments are the direct result of unilateral, short-sighted policies that relied on military power instead of diplomacy and ignored the complex geopolitics of the Middle East. This report argues that the new Middle East, contrary to American and Israeli expectations, is being reshaped to the advantage of their rivals—revealing the strategic failure of their aggressive policies.
Military superiority, diplomatic defeat
In its recent war with Iran, Israel once again demonstrated its military capabilities. Precision strikes on Iranian military infrastructure, backed by US logistical and intelligence support, did achieve a relative weakening of the defensive stronghold of the Axis of Resistance. At first glance, this military success seemed like a major victory for Israel. However, this superiority, which was expected to reinforce Israel’s position in the region and advance the process of normalisation with Arab states, has had the opposite effect. The scale of the attacks and their human toll—including widespread destruction and civilian casualties—sparked a wave of anger and resentment among Arab publics. Countries such as the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, which had previously taken steps toward normalization with Israel under the Abraham Accords, now find themselves under domestic pressure to reassess these policies.
Analysts argue that this outcome stems from the Israeli and American policymakers’ disregard for the social and political realities of the region. They assumed military dominance would break resistance to normalization, but this assumption does not align with today’s complex Middle Eastern realities. Instead, this display of force has pushed Arab countries closer to Iran, which, by leveraging its role as a supporter of the Palestinian cause, has managed to garner more regional sympathy. This paradox shows that military victories without diplomatic foundations not only fail to achieve political objectives but can also lead to diplomatic isolation.
Arab states pivot toward diplomacy with Iran
One of the most unexpected consequences of the war has been the growing inclination of Arab states toward diplomacy with Iran. Following the conflict, reports emerged of secret talks between Iran and several Arab countries—including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Oman—aimed at restoring diplomatic relations and expanding economic cooperation. This shift, particularly among Gulf Cooperation Council members, reflects a new understanding of the need to balance regional relationships. Arab states, having witnessed the failure of military-centered policies to bring regional stability, now see engagement with Iran as a way to reduce tensions and bolster their standing in a reshaped Middle East.
This diplomatic pivot is especially notable in the case of Saudi Arabia. After years of fierce rivalry with Tehran, Riyadh has concluded that continuing hostile policies could lead to its diplomatic isolation. Talks to restore bilateral ties, which had repeatedly stalled in the past, are now moving forward with renewed momentum. These developments indicate that US and Israeli aggressive strategies have not weakened Iran but rather enhanced its diplomatic position in the region. Iran, seizing these new opportunities, has positioned itself as a reliable partner for Arab states seeking to lessen their dependence on Western powers.
The limits of America’s unilateralism
As Israel’s main backer in this conflict, the United States played a central role in planning and executing military operations against Iran. But this support—intended to consolidate U.S. regional hegemony—has yielded paradoxical results. Instead of reinforcing America’s standing in the Middle East, Washington’s unilateral policies have eroded its influence among traditional allies. Arab countries that once depended on US military and economic support are now actively diversifying their foreign relations to reduce this dependence. This trend is particularly evident in countries like Egypt and Jordan, long-standing US partners.
America’s short-sighted policies, which focused on unconditional support for Israel, have come at the cost of its diplomatic credibility. Ignoring the humanitarian consequences of the war and dismissing Arab calls for mediation have severely undermined trust in the US as an impartial broker. This vacuum has opened the door for other actors—including China and Russia—to play a more active role in regional diplomacy. These shifts underscore America’s strategic failure in the Middle East, where an overreliance on military power over diplomacy has, in the final analysis, diminished its influence.
Rebuilding a new Middle East: Opportunities and challenges
The new Middle East emerging from the Iran–Israel war is taking shape in ways very different from what the United States and Israel anticipated. The region is moving toward multipolarity, where no single player can impose its hegemony. Iran, through active diplomacy and its championing of the Palestinian cause, has managed to strengthen its role as a key regional actor. Meanwhile, Israel, despite its military superiority, faces increasing diplomatic isolation.
A major feature of this new Middle East is the rise of regional diplomacy. Arab states that once depended heavily on external support are now working to build alliances more independent of Western powers. Although this process faces challenges such as historical disputes and economic rivalries, it holds the potential to ease regional tensions. For the US and Israel—who had expected the war to solidify their dominance—this amounts to a strategic defeat.
A critique of the hegemonic illusion
The recent war between Iran and Israel has laid bare a harsh truth: the illusion that military superiority can deliver geopolitical hegemony has not only failed to achieve American and Israeli goals but is actually strengthening their rivals and reshaping the Middle East against their interests. The unilateral, aggressive policies of Washington and Tel Aviv—crafted with little regard for the region’s social, political, and cultural complexities—have ended up boosting Iran’s diplomatic standing and drawing Arab states closer to Tehran. This strategic failure is the direct result of prioritising hard power over diplomacy and ignoring regional realities.
The new Middle East, contrary to US and Israeli expectations, is a multipolar region where diplomacy and regional cooperation take precedence. Arab countries, recognizing the futility of militarized approaches, are redefining their ties with Iran and reducing their reliance on Western powers. These developments serve as a stark warning to American and Israeli policymakers: continuing down the current path, built on the illusion of military victory, will only lead to greater isolation and weakened influence. This new Middle East is not a product of Washington and Tel Aviv’s designs, but rather the outcome of regional resistance to their short-sighted, unilateral strategies.
The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.