Global Economic Outlook Q4 2025: Global Resilience Battles U.S. Policy Unpredictability
US policy uncertainty, while declining, continues to hang over the global macro picture, according to a recent report from S&P Global Ratings. US tariffs and policies more generally dominate discussions with S&P Global Ratings’ clients and stakeholders and remain front and center in its credit conditions forecasting exercise.
S&P Global Ratings analysts continue to believe that sustained policy uncertainty “leaves money on the table.” This is because investment and discretionary consumer spending, and hence employment and output, are lower than they otherwise would be. Policy uncertainties, more than the policies themselves, are moving the macro needle.