Grain Market Update 2nd October

Market Prices and News

European grain prices remain very bearish, and Paris MATIF futures for Dec-25 reached a contract low mark of €186.25/t on September 30th.

Chicago wheat futures also hit seasonal lows earlier this week in response to higher production estimates in USDA quarterly reporting.

Chicago maize and soybean futures have fallen back to August lows in response to high quarterly stock figures. Dec-25 maize prices are $4.16/bu (€139/t).

European wheat is not first choice for the importers active in the global market at present time, such as Algeria and Iran even despite improved price competitiveness and this is keeping a lid on price improvement. (Agritel).

Paris rapeseed futures have fallen below the support zone of €470/t which has been in existence for the past number of weeks. On Tuesday Nov-25 contracts closed at €465.25/t down €5.75/t on Fridays closing price.

In the US, maize harvesting continues to advance, progress is 18% complete as of September 28th week, just behind the five-year average of 19%.

No further announcements have been made on native grain prices this week. IFA Grain Committee representatives will meet with Tirlan and Dairygold on harvest 2025 in the coming week.

At home, dried prices remain similar, dried wheat is trading at €215-220/t depending on the day with dried barley at €10 less. Imported maize is €212-215/t.

Global Grain Supply and Demand

The USDA has announced higher than anticipated production and ending stocks for US wheat in its quarterly report this week. Winter wheat output has risen 3.9% with spring wheat down by 8.3%. For maize, ending stocks for 2024/225 crop were also revised upwards substantially.

In Argentina, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange announced that the wheat crop is likely to reach 22MMT up from previous estimates of 20.5MMT. This crop will be harvested in November.

Harvest is also imminent for other big southern hemisphere producers like Australia; indications remain for an above average crop.