By Dow Jones Newswires staff
Below are the most important global events likely to affect FX and bond markets in the week starting Oct. 6.
Focus in the coming week will center on any developments with the U.S. government shutdown. If the shutdown continues, official U.S. data will be delayed, leaving investors watching U.S. Federal Reserve minutes and other data, particularly the University of Michigan consumer survey.
U.S.
The U.S. government shutdown that began on Oct. 1 is likely to continue delaying any official economic data, unless lawmakers reach an agreement to end it. Delayed data already include key U.S. jobs data for September, which were due on Oct. 3.
Wednesday's minutes for the last Federal Reserve meeting will attract a good deal of attention as investors look for signals about whether September's interest-rate cuts will be followed by more cuts at the two remaining meetings of the year in October and December.
"Any insights on the future policy rate path and views to the double-sided risks to employment and inflation will be closely watched by market participants," HSBC economists said in a note.
Delays in official data will mean investors pay extra attention to other data, notably Friday's University of Michigan preliminary consumer survey for October.
August trade data on Tuesday and weekly jobless claims figures on Thursday will be delayed if the government shutdown is continuing. Should the shutdown suddenly end, delayed reports, including the September nonfarms payrolls figures, could be released during the week.
The Treasury will auction 58$ billion in three-year notes on Tuesday, 39$ billion in 10-year notes on Wednesday and 22$ billion in 30-year bonds on Thursday.
Canada
Canadian jobs data for September on Friday will be closely watched amid concerns about a weak economy. Trade data are due Tuesday.
Latin America
On Thursday, Mexico releases full-month inflation figures for September while Brazil announces September inflation numbers on the same day.
Eurozone
Both the data calendar and issuance will be light.
Spanish industrial production for August is due on Monday, followed by German manufacturing orders on Tuesday and German industrial production data on Wednesday, as well as Italian industrial production figures on Friday.
The accounts of the European Central Bank's September meeting will be released on Thursday. Also on Thursday, the Eurogroup meeting of eurozone finance ministers will be held, followed by the Ecofin meeting of EU finance ministers on Friday.
Bond issuance will be thin. On Tuesday, Austria will auction February 2035- and October 2053-dated bonds, while Germany will sell October 2030 Bobl. On Wednesday, Germany will auction May 2041 and July 2042 Bunds. Ireland will hold a bond auction on Thursday.
U.K.
The coming week is a quiet one in the U.K., with the RICS house price survey for September due Thursday the only notable data release.
The U.K. plans a sale by programmatic gilt tender of January 2028 gilts on Tuesday and an auction of May 2029 gilts Wednesday.
Scandinavia
Inflation data for September for Sweden are released on Wednesday, followed by data from Norway on Friday.
"In Sweden, inflation should keep easing slowly, albeit from still-elevated levels, justifying market pricing of policy rates held stable at 1.75%. In Norway, we also expect a moderate downtrend in inflation to continue," Citi analysts said in a note.
Sweden and Norway will hold bond auctions on Wednesday.
Switzerland
Switzerland will conduct a bond auction on Wednesday
Poland
Poland's central bank holds its next policy meeting on Wednesday, with market expectations leaning in favor of another interest-rate cut. The market is pricing in a 66% chance of the National Bank of Poland cutting rates by 25 basis points to 4.50% and 34% odds of unchanged rates, LSEG data show.
A decision to hold rates looks more likely as an elevated core-inflation outlook puts a floor on policy easing, HSBC economist Agata Urbanska-Giner said in a note. "That said, the October rate decision remains a close call." NBP President Adam Glapinski has suggested a range of policy outcomes until year-end from zero to two more rate cuts, she said.
Japan
The Bank of Japan's branch managers are set to meet Monday, when a quarterly regional economic report will be released. The report may provide hints on the impact of higher U.S. tariffs and momentum for wage increases.
BOJ Gov. Kazuo Ueda is scheduled to speak at a forum in Tokyo on Wednesday. His remarks will likely draw attention as markets search for clues on the central bank's rate path ahead of its meeting later this month.
A series of economic indicators are also due, including household spending on Tuesday, current-account balance on Wednesday and the BOJ's consumer sentiment survey on Friday.
The BOJ will conduct outright purchases of four segments of the Japanese government-bond market on Wednesday. These include securities with maturities of more than five years and up to 10 years, and those with maturities of more than 10 years and up to 25 years. The purchases are expected to provide support to the domestic bond market that day.
The Ministry of Finance will auction about 700 billion yen in 30-year JGBs on Tuesday and roughly 2.4 trillion yen in five-year notes on Thursday. The 30-year auction is likely to attract greater interest from investors such as insurance companies and pension funds given the longer maturity and higher expected yield.
China
China markets remain closed until Thursday for the National Day Golden Week holidays and the Mid-Autumn festival, delaying the usual early-month releases of inflation and trade data.
Markets will monitor holiday travel and consumption figures from Golden Week, which typically boost demand and offer a snapshot of overall economic activity. Aggregate financing data could also be released at the end of the week as markets reopen.
Foreign-exchange reserves data are also in focus. Reserves rose to $3.32 trillion at the end of August, continuing a broadly steady upward trend for the year. Investors will watch to see if this increase continues.
Economists are also watching for September's M2 money supply figures. "M2 growth is expected to rise from 8.8% in August to 8.9% in September, with the gap between M2 and M1 projected to narrow further," said DBS economists. They attributed M1 growth to the recent A-share market rally, which climbed to levels last seen in 2022. "However, this incremental liquidity is unlikely to translate into the real economy, as consumers and investors remain cautious amid the ongoing property downturn and geopolitical tensions," they said.
Australia/New Zealand
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will be in the spotlight Wednesday, with markets pricing a one-third chance of a 50-basis-point rate cut after the economy contracted in the second quarter.
The downturn exceeded the expectations of both economists and the RBNZ itself. Some economists expect the central bank to take a more measured approach, opting for a 25-basis-point cut instead.
What's clear, however, is that further easing is on the table, with the debate centered on the pace and scale of cuts. Growth is weak, inflation is low, unemployment is high and house prices are falling despite a major easing cycle that began in mid-2024-suggesting more action is ahead.
Thailand
The Bank of Thailand will deliver its rate decision on Wednesday, while fresh inflation data will show whether deflationary pressures persisted for a sixth consecutive month. A Wall Street Journal poll indicates that headline inflation likely stayed in negative territory in September, raising concerns about weak demand.
Thai fixed-income markets are pricing in 25 to 50 basis points of rate cuts over the next three to six months, DBS economists said. This implies it is just a matter of time before the Bank of Thailand loosens policy, even if it chooses to hold for now.
DBS expects policymakers to lower the benchmark rate to 1.25% in October, citing softer conditions since the August meeting. Tourism remained subdued, private consumption is held back by weak confidence, and tariffs are slowing exports, the economists said.
At its last meeting, the BOT voted unanimously to cut rates, while emphasizing the need to consider limited policy space. October's decision will be the first under new Gov. Vitai Ratanakorn, who is widely seen leaning dovish.
Philippines
The Philippine central bank faces a tough call on Thursday, balancing rising food inflation risks against a weakening peso, ING economists said. The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas is expected to hold the repo rate at 5.0% for now, potentially deferring any move until December.
Asked in August how much policy space remains this year, Gov. Eli Remolona suggested there is room for one more cut, but only if the data evolves as expected.
After three consecutive cuts this year, UOB economist Jasrine Loke expects the BSP to pause and assess the domestic impact so far, and monitor external conditions before resuming its easing cycle.
The Philippines' September inflation data, due Tuesday, is expected to quicken to 2% from 1.5% in August due to higher food and fuel costs, DBS economists said.
Taiwan
Taiwan will release September inflation data Wednesday and trade figures Thursday.
Economists expect consumer prices to rise slightly after a 1.6% increase in August, driven by higher fruit and vegetable prices during the typhoon season. Inflationary pressures should remain subdued overall. The central bank recently projected 2025 inflation at 1.75%, down from 2.18% in 2024.
Forecasts for September export growth range from 29.2% to 48.8%, following a slowdown to 34.1% in August after months of front-loading ahead of U.S. tariffs. Citi economists expect exports to remain strong on seasonal tech shipments and resilient artificial intelligence demand, while non-tech exports likely stayed weak.
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October 05, 2025 17:14 ET (21:14 GMT)
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