NEW YORK—The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today released the September 2025 Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows that households’ inflation expectations increased at the short- and longer-term horizons and were unchanged at the medium-term horizon. Despite a small rebound in the expected job finding rate, labor market expectations continued to deteriorate with consumers reporting lower expected earnings growth, greater likelihoods of losing jobs, and a higher likelihood of a rise in overall unemployment. The survey was fielded from September 1 through September 30, 2025.
The main findings from the September 2025 Survey are:
Inflation
- Median inflation expectations in September increased at the one-year-ahead horizon to 3.4% from 3.2% and at the five-year-ahead horizon to 3.0% from 2.9%. They remained steady at the three-year-ahead horizon at 3.0%. The survey’s measure of disagreement across respondents (the difference between the 75th and 25th percentile of inflation expectations) decreased at the one-year and five-year horizons and was unchanged at the three-year horizon. The increase in the year-ahead measure was largest for those with at most a high school education and those with household incomes under $50,000.
- Median inflation uncertainty—or the uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomes—declined at the one-year horizon, was unchanged at the three-year horizon, and rose at the five-year horizon.
- Median home price growth expectations remained unchanged at 3.0% for the fourth consecutive month.
- Median year-ahead commodity price change expectations increased by 0.3 percentage point for food (to 5.8%) and for gas (to 4.2%), 0.5 percentage point for the cost of medical care (to 9.3%), and by 1.0 percentage point for rent (to 7.0%). The year-ahead expected change in the cost of a college education declined by 0.8 percentage point to 7.0%. The reading for expected food price growth is the highest since March 2023.
Labor Market
- Median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 2.4% in September, the lowest reading since April 2021.
- Mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now—increased 2.0 percentage points to 41.1%.
- The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months increased by 0.4 percentage point to 14.9%, above the trailing 12-month average of 14.1%. The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily, or the expected quit rate, in the next 12 months increased by 1.8 percentage points to 20.7%.
- The mean perceived probability of finding a job in the next three months if one’s current job was lost rebounded somewhat from a series low of 44.9% in August to 47.4% in September, while remaining well below the trailing 12-month average of 51.0%.
Household Finance
- The median expected growth in household income was unchanged at 2.9% in September, equaling the trailing 12-month average.
- Median nominal household spending growth expectations declined by 0.3 percentage point to 4.7%, falling below the trailing 12-month average of 4.9%.
- Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago were largely unchanged while expectations for future credit availability improved, with the net share of respondents expecting it will be easier versus harder to obtain credit a year from now increasing slightly.
- The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months decreased by 0.5 percentage point to 12.6%, remaining well below the trailing 12-month average of 13.5%.
- The median expectation regarding a year-ahead change in taxes at current income level increased by 0.2 percentage point to 3.6%.
- Median year-ahead expected growth in government debt increased by 0.9 percentage point to 7.5%.
- The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on saving accounts will be higher in 12 months increased by 0.6 percentage point to 24.9%.
- Perceptions about households’ current financial situations compared to a year ago improved somewhat with a larger share of respondents reporting that their households were better off compared to a year ago. Expectations about year-ahead financial situations deteriorated slightly with a smaller share of respondents reporting that their households are expecting to be better off a year from now.
- The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now increased by 0.9 percentage point to 39.8%, well above the trailing 12-month average of 38.0%.
About the Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE)
The SCE contains information about how consumers expect overall inflation and prices for food, gas, housing, and education to behave. It also provides insight into Americans’ views about job prospects and earnings growth and their expectations about future spending and access to credit. The SCE also provides measures of uncertainty regarding consumers’ outlooks. Expectations are also available by age, geography, income, education, and numeracy.
The SCE is a nationally representative, internet-based survey of a rotating panel of approximately 1,200 household heads. Respondents participate in the panel for up to 12 months, with a roughly equal number rotating in and out of the panel each month. Unlike comparable surveys based on repeated cross-sections with a different set of respondents in each wave, this panel allows us to observe the changes in expectations and behavior of the same individuals over time. For further information on the SCE, please refer to an overview of the survey methodology here, the FAQs, the interactive chart guide, and the survey questionnaire.