The National Emergencies Operation Centre (NEOC) of the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) on Friday issued a weather alert warning that moderate to heavy monsoon rains are expected to affect multiple regions of the country for a three-day period commencing from July 13 (Sunday).
Monsoon rains fall across the region from June to September, offering respite from the summer heat and replenishing water supplies and agriculture. They are crucial to the livelihoods of millions of farmers and food security. However, they also trigger deadly floods, landslides and displacement, particularly in vulnerable, poorly drained, or densely populated areas.
The NEOC advised the public to take precautionary measures in anticipation of rains.
The forecast indicates moderate to heavy monsoon rainfall across various regions of Pakistan due to intensified moisture inflow from the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea, coupled with an active westerly wave system.
As a result, substantial rises in river flows are expected — most notably in the Indus, Kabul, Jhelum (upstream of Mangla), and Chenab rivers.
The advisory stated that Tarbela, Taunsa, and Guddu barrages were currently at low flood levels, while Kalabagh and Chashma were at medium flood levels.
“Taunsa is also expected to rise to medium flood levels, with low to medium flows likely to persist in Indus river stations throughout the coming week,” the NDMA said.
The Chenab river is expected to reach low flood levels at Marala and Khanki, while low flood levels are also forecasted for the Kabul river at Nowshera.
Rain-induced swelling is anticipated in the Swat and Panjkora rivers, as well as their associated streams and nullahs.
Torrential flows in Dera Ghazi Khan and Rajanpur torrents are likely to re-activate with medium to high flows during the upcoming weather spell. In Balochistan, streams and nullahs in north-eastern districts may experience high flows, including Jhal Magsi, Kachhi, Sibi, Qila Saifullah, Zhob, and Musakhel.
Additionally, localised flash flooding is expected in river networks of southern Balochistan districts such as Khuzdar, Awaran, Lasbela, and Qalat. At present, Tarbela Dam is at 74 per cent storage capacity and Mangla Dam is at 44pc according to the forecast.
The NDMA advised residents living near rivers, streams, and nullahs to stay vigilant for sudden surges in water levels, especially during heavy rainfall and nighttime.
“Communities in flood-prone areas should identify safe evacuation routes, secure household items, vehicles, and livestock at elevated locations, and prepare emergency kits with essential supplies, including food, water and medicines sufficient for three to five days,” it said.
“District administration, particularly in northeastern and central Punjab, should prepare de-watering equipment to manage water accumulation due to heavy downpours,” it added.
The NDMA strongly urged the public to remain updated through official flood warnings broadcasted via television, radio, mobile alerts and the Pak NDMA Disaster Alert mobile application.
“All citizens are reminded to avoid crossing causeways, low bridges, and flooded roads.”
The NDMA said that it remains in “close coordination with relevant authorities” to monitor the situation and ensure timely dissemination of alerts.
Sindh prepares for monsoon rains
Sindh Chief Minister Syed Murad Ali Shah convened a high-level meeting to review and enhance preparations for the upcoming monsoon rains, emphasising readiness across all relevant departments and institutions province-wide.
The meeting, held at the CM House, included provincial ministers Sharjeel Memon, Nasir Shah, Saeed Ghani, Jam Khan Shoro, Zia Lanjar, Mohammad Bux Mahar and Mohammad Ali Malkani. Also present were Karachi Mayor Murtaza Wahab, Inspector General of Police Ghulam Nabi Memon, Commissioner Karachi Hassan Naqvi, provincial secretaries, Chief Metrologist Ameer Hyder, and Disaster Management, Water Board, K Electric, Solid Waste heads and representatives from the Corps-V.
The participants of the meeting observed that the weather forecasts predict a “heat-low” pressure area forming earlier than usual over southern Pakistan, with rainfall expected to be normal to slightly above normal during July and August. Upper Sindh may see a 10pc increase in rainfall, while southern Sindh could experience a rise of 20-30pc.
Flood management remains a priority as the Lower Indus region faces significant risks, with potential flooding from the Indus River and hill torrents.
To combat these challenges, the CM has activated all the concerned departments and organisations to improve drainage systems and pumping stations, ensuring they are operational ahead of the monsoon season.
Ongoing restoration efforts from the 2022 floods focus on critical infrastructure improvements to enhance the region’s resilience against flooding.
The CM was told that the cleaning of drains began on June 20, with the operation set to continue until September 15. All major choking points and culverts have been cleared as part of this effort.
Underpasses, including Tariq road, KPT, Submarine, and Mehran, are being prioritised, while emergency response teams remain on high alert across the city.
It was pointed out that the city faced issues such as inadequate infrastructure to handle over 45 millimetres of rain per hour, with challenges including plastic waste and encroachments blocking drains, particularly in District Korangi.