The Impact of Head Coach and Student Athlete Decision Making in the Transfer Portal Era of College Sports – The Sport Journal

ABSTRACT

In collegiate sports, the reputation of the head coach is important in urban and suburban America as the transfer portal era of college sports continues to evolve. Many young athletes are going through the decision-making process as they prepare to compete on the collegiate level. Athletes have overcome their circumstances to open doors to the field of college sports, but with the impact of coaching changes, coaching reputations, and the growth of the transfer portal in recent years, college sports has entered an era of mobility on the coach and player levels, during the post-Covid pandemic society in our global sports world.

Key Words: High School Sports, College Sports, HBCU Sports, Coaching, Transfer Portal

INTRODUCTION

College sports has evolved tremendously from the days of four-year scholarship opportunity commitments to now the transfer portal era of today’s sports paradigm.  The transfer portal era refers to the ability of players to sign with one school this year and then transfer to another school the next year if another opportunity arises.  Many forces are now influencing the expansion of college sports and which, in effect, draw attention to the reasons why the impact of who the head coach is and the student athlete decision making process, are now having an impact on where today’s student athlete is deciding to go on signing day. 

From a practical viewpoint, while the college or university name plays a role in the decision-making process, when considering the student athlete decision, when considering the movement in player recruitment evolving over the past five years, the reputation of the coach along with the transfer portal and name, image, and likeness (NIL) opportunities are now playing a larger role in where students are attending across America.  When considering the hiring of coaches like Deion “Coach Prime” Sanders at Jackson State University in 2021 and then his movement to the University of Colorado in 2023 and the growth of transfer portal in recent years, coaching changes and coaching reputations have evolved to a level where a ‘free agent” market, like professional sports includes, is now part of the everyday operations of college sports. 

Thus, using sociohistorical and current perspectives and demographical information, the following questions guide this exploration:  

1. What is the impact of the head coach in the pre-Covid transfer portal era (prior to 2020) and post-Covid transfer portal era (2020 to the present) on the NCAA Division I (FBS), NCAA Division I (FCS), NCAA Division II, and NCAA Division III levels of college sports? 
2. What is the impact of the student athlete decision making process in the pre-Covid transfer portal era (prior to 2020) and post-Covid transfer portal era (2020 to the present) on the NCAA Division I (FBS), NCAA Division I (FCS), NCAA Division II, and NCAA Division III levels of college sports? 

These questions provide the context for understanding how the impact of the head coach has evolved from the pre-Covid transfer era in 2020 to the present post-Covid era on the NCAA Division I (FBS), NCAA Division I (FCS), NCAA Division II, and NCAA Division III levels. These questions show how on each of these levels and even to the recruitment of graduating high school student athletes is much different in 2025 as compared to years past. Using the implications of contextual matters, these questions offer a wider understanding of the contextual impact of the head coach along with their reputation and the universities ability to compete in the transfer portal era of college sports with the appropriate academic and athletic resources, today and tomorrow in the changing landscape. 

A View of the Impact of the Head Coach in the Transfer Portal Era of College Sports

Context matters when viewing the impact of the head coach and the student athlete decision making in the transfer portal era of college football, particularly given how the post-Covid transfer portal era is significantly different than the pre-Covid transfer portal era has evolved for student athletes selecting their colleges and universities.  The competition that has become apparent is that many athletes are now choosing not only where they attend based upon the reputation of coach, as past studies show, but also now where they can build upon their name, image and likeness (NIL) as well as where they can have the abilities to play the sport they love.  With the convergence of these concepts, entrance into the college ranks has been a detailed process from middle school to high school as many parents and student athletes embrace the process of going from youth sports to collegiate sports through the traditional way of the college choice process as outlined in past studies, like (1), (4), (5), and (7).  

According to (2), the primary college choice model is the (3) model, which focuses on the “predisposition phase, the search process and the choice stage” (pp. 207-221). In this model, (3) explain the logical steps that a student would encounter in the decision-making process, including the following: (1) the predisposition phase focuses on whether or not the student would like to continue formal education; (2) the search process focuses on the consideration and selection of characteristics of higher education and (3) the choice stage focuses on developing choice criteria and selecting an institution to attend.

When looking at the (3) of college choice in more detail along with (2) study on the college choice process of male and female collegiate student athletes going to the next level, it has three primary components including: (a) creating a simpler yet more conceptual model as compared to previous models; (b) isolating and containing the college choice process within a manageable three-stage framework (predisposition, search, and choice) as described above; and (c) emphasizing stages that focuse more on the student rather than the institution.  As a result, we see how student athletes are navigating to colleges and universities, that include those hired during the Coach Prime Era from 2020 to the present, those with previous college coaching experience or those coached with former NFL players.

As Table 4 shows, from the sampling of coaching hires, it was found that out of 25 coaching hires, 10 or 40% had NFL Playing Experience, had college coaching experience 13 or 52%, and had NFL Coaching Experience, 2 or 8%, excluding Coach Prime, thus the Coach Prime Effect on college coaching hires is part of the impact of today’s post Covid transfer portal era along with higher coaching salaries heading into the 2025 season, according to (10) in Table 5.

A View of the Impact of the Student Athlete Decision Making Process in the Transfer Portal Era of College Sports

In 2025, context matters, too, with regards to the head coach and student athlete decision making in the transfer portal era of college sports, specifically in football.  During the past five years, following Covid in 2020, the transfer portal has become a major component of the college football paradigm.  With the ability of players to become immediately eligible to play in most cases when they transfer, player movement has evolved to resemble the free agency model of professional football.  Through a sampling of schools throughout the country, there has been an uptick in players entering the transfer portal from 2020 to 2024 that have impacted to the collegiate sports industry.  Table 6 summarizes how this period has reshaped the sports paradigm. 

As Table 6 shows from NBC Sports and On3.com, “there has been an increase from years 2020 to 2021 and then from 2022 to 2023. The 65% increase in 2020-2021, along with the 19% increase from 2022-2023, shows that the impact of the transfer portal is growing throughout the field of college football and in the student athlete decision making process” (9), (10), (11), (12), (13) and (14). The largest increase has been from the 2020 to the 2025 years as there has been a 418% increase in the number of transfer portal entrants as shown in Table 6 above from 786 entrants in 2020 to 4060 entrants currently in June 2025.

Table 7 shows the impact of when a high-profile coach leaves one college and moves to another college that student athlete’s decision making resulted in approximately 60 student athletes entering the transfer portal.  This occurred when Deion “Coach Prime” Sanders took a head coach job at the University of Colorado and completed his work as head coach at Jackson State University.  Coach Prime’s exit resulted in him achieving a Power 5 position in the Big 12 Conference.  The resulting impact has also seen the hiring of other former athletes, like former Tennessee State University head coach Eddie George, recently moving to Bowling Green State University after having a measure of success with an Ohio Valley Conference Championship and postseason playoff appearance at Tennessee State University. 

Though many well-known sports figures are arriving at colleges and universities, like Michael Vick at Norfolk State University (football), Desean Jackson at Delaware State University (football), Reggie Barlow at Tennessee State University(football), and Bill Belichick at the University of North Carolina (football), the student athlete decision making process of offers, commitments and signings continue to be a valuable part of the recruiting process as the world of college athletics in 2025 evolves into a stronger business model of NIL collectives, new administrative roles like Athletic Department General Managers, and a more active transfer portal era during the post-Covid era, thus requiring a broader contextual perspective.

Additionally, Coach Prime and the Colorado Buffaloes recently continued in their turnaround from a one win season in 2022, prior to his arrival, as they qualified for the Alamo Bowl with a nine win season in Year Two of the Coach Prime Era along with having a Heisman Trophy Winner, while Coach T.C. Taylor, the coach that replaced Coach Prime at Jackson State, just recently led them to a SWAC Championship and Celebration Bowl HBCU National Championship twelve-win, two loss season, though both schools were recently impacted by the transfer portal between 2022 and 2024, according to (6). Also, the Ohio State University football team won the first-ever 12 team playoff National Championship over the University of Notre Dame, with a fourteen-win, two loss season. 

Shared Implications of Coaching, Student Athlete Decision Making and the Transfer Portal Era of an Evolving College Sports Model in 2025 and Beyond

In closing, since the first collegiate football game in November of 1869 between Rutgers University and the College of New Jersey (now Princeton University) until the most recent national championship between the Ohio State University and the University of Notre Dame in January 2025, the college sports model has been consistently focused on maintaining the balance between student and athlete.  For many years, this balance was focused on a model of players going to school for an education through scholarship achievement and athletic competition.  Though this still remains the primary focus, the transfer portal is now playing a stronger role on the student athlete decision making process as athletes have the flexibility to opt-out of their scholarships and transfer to other schools on a year to year basis, if they so choose.  Moving forward, with a major $2.8 billion settlement coming in July of 2025, a shift in the model on all levels will see more fluidity as the impact of the head coach and who that person is, along with how valued a student athlete feels will become factors that influence where players play and whether or not they choose to enter the transfer portal and then go elsewhere.  For example, according to (8), “more than 4,600 Division I athletes have entered their names in the NCAA transfer portal in the month of April 2025, in part because schools have been preparing for the expected roster limits in the $2.8 billion settlement”.  Moreover, as new student athletes enter the college sports arena from high school, having knowledge of the NIL process, will factor into the how student athletes make college choices and it will also have an impact on how colleges and universities structure their athletic departments and, in many instances, run them like professional organizations as the transfer portal era continues.