DESPITE the alarming state of human development in Pakistan, policy actions to address this don’t figure in the government’s top priorities. Most indicators of literacy, education, health, poverty, gender disparity and other aspects of human welfare have deteriorated in recent years, but these issues barely come up in parliamentary or public debate. The media too pays little attention to the human development deficit as the recent discussion of the budget lays bare. There has been virtually no focus in TV programmes on the abysmally low government spending on the social sector.
True, the country’s persistent macroeconomic crisis and rising debt burden have preoccupied governments and sharply limited the attention and resources directed to human development. But this reflects a failure to acknowledge that economic progress is intrinsically linked to investment in human capital. The country’s growth and development prospects are severely constrained by the lack of such investment. This has serious implications for Pakistan’s economic future.
The overall picture of various dimensions of human development remains exceedingly grim. The UNDP’s latest global Human Development Report of 2025 puts Pakistan in the ‘low’ human development category with a rank of 168 out of 193 countries in the Human Development Index. In its 2023 report Pakistan Human Capital Review, the World Bank says Pakistan faces a “silent, deep human capital crisis” which will adversely affect its future economic trajectory.
No issue is more important for the country’s future than the coverage and quality of education available to our children. Yet Pakistan still has the world’s second highest number of children, over 26 million (aged five to 16), out of school. Over half of them are girls. It means 45pc of children in this age group do not have access to school. This violates the obligation set out in Article 25A of the Constitution that enjoins the state to “provide free and compulsory education to all children of the age of five to sixteen years”. Among children who go to school, drop-out rates remain high as does learning poverty.
Unless Pakistan invests in its people it cannot make meaningful economic progress.
In September 2024 on International Literacy Day, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced an education emergency across the country and vowed to work with the provinces to get the 26m out-of-school children enrolled. This was the second time he declared an education emergency, having also done that in May 2024. This was an important recognition of what needed to be done, but nothing happened to translate these pious declarations into policy — a reminder that platitudes often substitute for policy.
Similarly, while the government’s ‘Uraan’ economic plan, announced last December, acknowledged the need for “urgent investment” in human capital, these words were not matched by policy action. In fact, federal and provincial government spending on education has plummeted to a new low of 0.8pc of GDP (from 2pc in 2018), which makes it among the lowest in South Asia.
No surprise then that literacy levels have shown little improvement in recent years. The latest Pakistan Economic Survey puts literacy at 60pc, which means 40pc of the population is illiterate. No country has achieved economic progress with this level of illiteracy. Given the population’s youth bulge, the education deficit has very troubling implications. Over two-thirds of the population are below age 30. That means the young will determine the country’s destiny. But if they are uneducated and unemployed, they face a hopeless future, which will jeopardise the country’s prospects. To reap the demographic dividend, Pakistan has to educate the young and equip them with skills. The youth bulge offers an opportunity for accelerated economic growth if the country makes the needed investment in human capital. Failure to do so will have far-reaching economic and social consequences.
The scale of poverty is also alarming. It has risen to 44pc according to the World Bank’s revised income thresholds. With anaemic growth, cost-of-living crisis and limited job creation, poverty has not only increased but become more severe. People living in extreme poverty has increased to 16.5pc of the population from 4.9pc.
Health indicators are equally disturbing. Expenditure on health, at 0.9pc of GDP, is abysmally low. A disturbing phenomenon and consequence of malnutrition is child stunting, which the Human Capital Review calls a “public health crisis”. The report finds around 40pc of Pakistani children under five are stunted — a shocking number. This condemns these children to a life of physical disability, poverty and deprivation and also exposes them to premature mortality. Stunting results from malnutrition, which is mainly associated with poverty.
Despite some modest gains, progress in gender empowerment has stalled. Gender gaps in education, health, access to employment, financial services, information, political and other opportunities, continue to be wide. Pakistan has plunged to the bottom in the World Economic Forum’s Global Gender Gap Index 2025, being ranked last among 148 countries. Female participation in the labour force remains low at around 22pc compared to over 80pc for males. This is among the lowest in Muslim countries and well below rates for countries at comparable income levels. It is a well-established fact that more women in the workforce helps economies grow and increases GDP per capita. This indicates how much needs to be done for gender empowerment.
Pakistan’s rapidly rising, unsustainable population growth, the highest in South Asia, also warrants the government’s attention. This is putting enormous pressure on the country’s scarce resources, physical infrastructure and shrinking job and educational opportunities at a time of economic difficulty. Population planning rarely figures in government priorities. A task force on population was established in 2018 on the Supreme Court’s directive. Headed by the president it has been non-functional for years. For it to be effective the PM needs to head and drive it. Unless Pakistan implements a comprehensive population planning policy, whose elements are well-known, a demographic disaster awaits the country.
This dismal picture of human development puts Pakistan’s future at risk. Economic growth and human development are mutually reinforcing. Unless significant investment is made in its people, the country cannot hope to achieve economic growth, boost productivity, build a skilled workforce and become globally competitive. Above all it cannot become a country its people aspire for and deserve.
The writer is a former ambassador to the US, UK and UN.
Published in Dawn, July 14th, 2025