The much-hyped plan to reduce Pakistan’s power sector circular debt by a staggering Rs1.3 trillion has hit an all-too-predictable obstacle: Chinese independent power producers (IPPs) are balking at waiving late payment surcharges (LPS), a linchpin of the scheme. This setback — far from surprising — exposes the fragility of a strategy that mistook financial reshuffling for structural reform.
Despite the optimism of stock market speculators and government cheerleaders, the plan’s collapse was foreseeable. It is now back to square one, leaving Pakistan’s energy sector mired in its perennial quagmire.
The circular debt — a complex web of unpaid obligations across the energy supply chain — cannot be tamed by merely shifting liabilities from one balance sheet to another. Such manoeuvres amount to little more than Excel-sheet sleight of hand, side-stepping the root causes: one-sided contracts, inefficiencies in distribution companies, and persistent grid anomalies. These are not financial puzzles to be solved with clever accounting or price adjustments; they are technical and engineering challenges demanding rigorous, ground-level solutions. Imagine trying to fix a crumbling building by tweaking its blueprint on a spreadsheet — absurd, yet this is precisely the approach successive administrations have taken.
The energy sector’s woes extend beyond electricity to the intertwined dynamics of gas and petroleum. Integrated energy planning is not a luxury — it is a necessity. Yet policymakers persist in treating these sectors as siloed fiefdoms. Efforts to boost power sector consumption—often through punitive levies on alternative energy sources—have ripple effects that destabilize the gas and petroleum markets. For instance, prohibitive gas price hikes for captive power users have pushed some industries off the utility grid, reducing gas consumption but creating a glut of expensive imported regasified liquefied natural gas (RLNG). This forces a reduction in cheaper domestic gas supply to accommodate RLNG, driving up costs and eroding cross-subsidies that once benefited domestic consumers. The result? A burgeoning gas circular debt, as the “solution” to one problem seeds another.
The original plan hinged on a flawed assumption: that Chinese IPPs would waive LPS, allowing fresh bank financing at lower rates to clear the debt stock by 2031. The International Monetary Fund, ever the cautious overseer, endorsed this — provided the LPS was waived and the burden passed to consumers via surcharges, which already exceed Rs3 per unit on electricity bills. With no cap on these surcharges, rising interest rates could further inflate costs for households already stretched thin. Meanwhile, the primary beneficiaries were to be listed energy companies and their shareholders—including the government and stock market investors—whose balance sheets would gleam from unlocked valuations. Consumers, by contrast, were promised no relief until the distant horizon of 2031.
The refusal of Chinese IPPs to waive LPS — unlike earlier concessions extracted from local IPPs, which some shareholders decried as coercive — lays bare the plan’s naivety. Geostrategic realities, particularly Pakistan’s reliance on Chinese support amid regional tensions, make such demands politically untenable. The writing was on the wall: IPPs had privately signalled their resistance, knowing that waiving LPS would weaken their financial position. Yet the plan’s architects dodged questions about this contingency, banking on optimism rather than pragmatism.
Compounding the missteps, recent policies have imposed steep levies on alternative energy sources — such as a 60 percent tax on furnace oil (FO) — to steer industries toward the national grid. While some captive power users have complied, others, constrained by technical incompatibilities, have sought alternatives like FO, only to face new penalties. This has reduced FO consumption, threatening the throughput of local refineries and risking higher petroleum imports—a cascading series of unintended consequences. The power sector’s circular debt plan, far from resolving core issues, has instead spawned new distortions across the energy ecosystem.
It is about time the government provided real solutions that ease the burden on general consumers, rather than continue with measures designed for optics — or worse, to serve vested interests.
The energy sector’s challenges are not linear; they demand a holistic approach rooted in technical expertise and political courage. Reforming distribution inefficiencies and addressing grid anomalies cannot be achieved through financial sleight of hand or coercive pricing. A technically capable team, unencumbered by short-term political pressures, must spearhead an integrated energy strategy that balances electricity, gas, and petroleum dynamics. Without such a reset, Pakistan risks perpetuating a cycle of debt, dysfunction, and disillusionment — with consumers bearing the cost of every misstep.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2025