LAHORE: Senate elections on 11 vacant seats in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and one in Punjab are scheduled for July 21, 2025. The refusal of the KP Assembly speaker to administer the oath to members elected on reserved seats had resulted in a delay, as the house remains incomplete.
To date, the oath-taking has not taken place, with the speaker refusing to convene a session of the assembly for this purpose, despite a formal request from the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP). The ECP has now written to the governor of KP, urging him to exercise his constitutional authority and summon a session as soon as possible to ensure oath-taking before July 21.
Regardless of how that issue is resolved, there has been significant political discussion around the importance of the KP Senate elections for the federal government’s aim of securing a two-thirds majority in the upper house, seen to be crucial for passing constitutional amendments, including the proposed 27th Amendment.
However, as seen with the passage of the 26th Amendment, the government managed to push it through without such a majority. That aside, a closer breakdown suggests that the KP Senate elections are not, in themselves, decisive for achieving a two-thirds majority.
A two-thirds majority in the Senate requires 64 votes. The ruling alliance currently holds 54 seats. Three independent senators — Mohsin Naqvi, Anwar ul Haq Kakar and Faisal Vawda — are considered de facto allies of the government, bringing the tally to 57. Two more independent senators, Naseema Ehsan and Asad Qasim (who succeeded his father, Qasim Ronjho, in the seat after both were ousted from BNP-M for supporting the 26th Amendment), are also likely to support the government.
The BNP-M alleged that their members were abducted and coerced into voting for the amendment, but proceeded to expel them regardless. With the vacant Punjab seat also likely to go to the government, the total could rise to 58. Including the likely support of Naseema Ehsan and Asad Qasim, the count would reach 60 — just four short of the required 64.
The decisive factor, then, is not the KP elections themselves, but the support of the JUI-F (aka JUI-P), which currently holds five Senate seats. Without the JUI-F, the government is unlikely to win more than one seat in KP, unless it can secure defections from PTI-backed members. If all 145 KP Assembly members vote, approximately 19 votes would be needed per general Senate seat, and 49 for reserved seats.
After the reserved seat members are sworn in, the PML-N-led alliance’s strength in the KP Assembly will be 33, enough for just one Senate seat. However, with the support of the JUI-F’s 16 members, the alliance could aim for up to four seats, significantly bolstering its Senate position.
If a deal is reached between the PML-N-led coalition and JUI-F for the Senate elections, the key question will be: what will Maulana Fazlur Rehman’s bargaining chip be? He is unlikely to allow all four potential seats to go to PML-N or PPP nominees. That means, even with a Senate deal, Maulana Fazlur Rehman will retain a strategic advantage in any constitutional amendment process.
So it is not the KP Senate elections that hold the key to a two-thirds majority but Maulana Fazlur Rehman’s JUI-F, with whose support the government can pass amendments without relying on pressure tactics or horse-trading. Without it, however, passing such legislation will become challenging.
It would be fair to conclude then that the Maulana holds the trump card, regardless of how the KP Senate elections play out.
The question is whether Maulana Fazlur Rehman will oppose any amendment that further curtails democratic and constitutional rights or acquiesce, as he has on several previous occasions.