Who is he: Federal Reserve Governor
Polymarket odds: 12%
Market commentary: Waller is gaining momentum in the race as a dark horse candidate, receiving a 9% boost on Polymarket early Friday after giving a speech arguing for a July rate cut. Waller cited weak private payroll growth as one of the main reasons for the Fed to lower rates at this month’s meeting.
Out of all the options, Waller would probably be the one most palatable to investors, as his arguments for cutting are the least political, and he would represent a fairly establishment pick to run the central bank.
“He is not talking about cost overruns on the Eccles building or lowering the cost of government finance or ‘regime change,’ but he is talking about the shifting balance of risks in the economy,” Dutta wrote in a note on Thursday.
“There is a huge distance from him — someone who has an intellectual consistent/defensible/sound position — and the sycophants (Hassett, Bowman, Warsh) who are extensions of DJT,” Warren Pies, founder of 3Fourteen Research, wrote in an X post on Thursday.
Key quote: “While the labor market looks fine on the surface, once we account for expected data revisions, private-sector payroll growth is near stall speed, and other data suggest that the downside risks to the labor market have increased. With inflation near target and the upside risks to inflation limited, we should not wait until the labor market deteriorates before we cut the policy rate,” Waller said on Thursday.