Eli Lilly (LLY) delivered standout results, with earnings climbing at a 20% annual pace over the past five years and surging 120% in the last year alone. Net profit margins rose to 31% versus 20.5% a year ago. Looking ahead, earnings are forecast to grow at 19.3% per year, outpacing the broader US market’s 15.9% estimate. Despite a lofty Price-to-Earnings ratio of 42 times, which sits well above industry norms, the current share price of $862.86 still trails a discounted cash flow fair value of $1,226.48. This highlights the tension between rapid growth and premium valuation as investors digest the report.
See our full analysis for Eli Lilly.
The next section puts these headline numbers in context by measuring them against widely held market narratives. Some assumptions will be confirmed, while others may face tough questions.
See what the community is saying about Eli Lilly
-
Robust volume and revenue growth from medicines like Mounjaro and Zepbound, supported by a global chronic disease surge and new manufacturing capacity, are fueling sustained sales expansion well above the US market’s 10.4% revenue growth average.
-
Analysts’ consensus view highlights strategic bets on obesity and diabetes as the engine for continued market share gains and larger addressable markets.
-
Rapid global launches and rising demand underpin analyst forecasts of revenue rising 18.7% annually for the next three years, compared to industry averages.
-
This medical trend aligns with the consensus expectation of earnings reaching $34.2 billion and profit margins climbing from 25.9% to 38.4% by 2028.
-
-
For the full community debate on whether these launches can sustain such momentum, check out the consensus narrative and see how analysts break down both the upside and challenges. 📊 Read the full Eli Lilly Consensus Narrative.
-
Forecasted profit margins are set to leap from 25.9% to 38.4% in the next three years, with new drug launches in neurodegenerative and specialty categories (such as Kisunla and donanemab) underpinning this expectation.
-
Analysts’ consensus view sees margin expansion as a function of innovation and market reach, but warns that heavy R&D investment and overconcentration in a few therapies could lead to volatility.
-
Notably, a deep late-stage clinical pipeline is expected to open up multibillion-dollar markets, but failures or delays would meaningfully dent these margin projections.
-
Strategic use of digital platforms (LillyDirect) is flagged as another profit lever, but reliance on pricing power leaves margins vulnerable to regulatory changes.
-