Creating new scientific models of plankton is “critical” to understanding the scale of global climate change, a new scientific study has argued, suggesting that all current models used to simulate the influence of plankton on ocean ecosystems are “based on out of date concepts.”
The landmark study led by Plymouth Marine Laboratory’s Professor Kevin Flynn and including the University of Exeter, recognises the crucial role plankton plans in powering the planet by feeding marine life. Simulating what they do through up-to-date modelling is therefore essential to predict what the future may hold for our planet.
Outlining the significance of plankton to Earth, Professor Flynn said: Plankton are mainly microscopic organisms that grow in the ocean (and also in inland waters) that support the base of the food chain.
“No plankton – no fish, no sharks, no whales, no seals, no coral, etc. However, the diversity of the plankton is critical; that biodiversity cannot be best compressed into just a few groups, yet invariably that is what happens in models.”
The researchers argue that plankton models need updating to reflect contemporary knowledge about plankton physiology, diversity, and their roles in ecosystem functioning.
“We’re using simulation tools built on 30 to 50-year-old concepts to understand the most complex and rapidly changing ecosystems on Earth. And that’s a real problem – not just for science, but for policy and for wider society. We need to be sure that models describe the ecophysiology of these organisms in a realistic manner,” said Professor Flynn.
The study warns of serious consequences – from underestimating biodiversity shifts to missing key drivers of marine productivity and carbon cycling.
Using models with over-simplified conceptual cores runs the risk of getting the “right” results for the wrong reasons, giving a false sense of confidence for using such models in projecting into the future.