The worst result, after buying shares in a company (assuming no leverage), would be if you lose all the money you put in. But if you buy shares in a really great company, you can more than double your money. For example, the Tribune Resources Limited (ASX:TBR) share price has soared 126% in the last three years. That sort of return is as solid as granite. On top of that, the share price is up 42% in about a quarter.
So let’s investigate and see if the longer term performance of the company has been in line with the underlying business’ progress.
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In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company’s share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
During three years of share price growth, Tribune Resources achieved compound earnings per share growth of 164% per year. This EPS growth is higher than the 31% average annual increase in the share price. So it seems investors have become more cautious about the company, over time. We’d venture the lowish P/E ratio of 10.50 also reflects the negative sentiment around the stock.
You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
We’re pleased to report that the CEO is remunerated more modestly than most CEOs at similarly capitalized companies. It’s always worth keeping an eye on CEO pay, but a more important question is whether the company will grow earnings throughout the years. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on Tribune Resources’ earnings, revenue and cash flow.
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It’s fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of Tribune Resources, it has a TSR of 151% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there’s no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
It’s good to see that Tribune Resources has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 42% in the last twelve months. That’s including the dividend. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 3%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Even so, be aware that Tribune Resources is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about…