The U.S. Dollar Index staged a firm rebound on Friday, recovering from two-week lows. This surge coincided with a drop in weekly jobless claims to a three-month low, reinforcing views that the U.S. labor market remains resilient. With gold priced in dollars, a stronger greenback reduces its attractiveness to foreign buyers, amplifying downside pressure.
In addition, a firm labor backdrop makes it harder for the Fed to justify immediate rate cuts. The prospect of rates staying higher for longer diminishes gold’s appeal as a non-yielding asset, making the dollar-gold inverse relationship even more impactful heading into the FOMC meeting.
Trade Optimism Undermines Safe-Haven Demand
Bullion’s role as a safe haven was further diminished on Friday by rising confidence in U.S.-EU trade talks. Following a finalized U.S.-Japan agreement earlier in the week, the European Commission expressed confidence in reaching a deal with Washington by the August 1 deadline. Risk appetite increased, with investors rotating into equities and risk-linked assets. As geopolitical tensions ease, capital continues flowing out of gold.
Gold Prices Forecast
Friday’s technical breakdown below the 50-day moving average, combined with fundamental headwinds, shifts the short-term outlook to bearish. Gold may attempt to base near $3,310.480, but unless the Fed signals dovish policy next week, sellers are likely to remain in control. A retest of $3,282.660 and possibly $3,244.410 is on the table if bearish momentum accelerates. Gold’s longer-term bias remains constructive, supported by the 200-day SMA at $2,991.303, but near-term risk is skewed to the downside.
More Information in our Economic Calendar.