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Nissan Motor recently updated its earnings guidance for the first half of fiscal year 2025, reporting a substantially smaller operating loss than previously forecast and newly confirming plans to export China-made vehicles through a joint venture with Dongfeng Motor.
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The shift to an export-focused model in China aims to address weak local sales and excess capacity by targeting overseas markets, reflecting Nissan’s efforts to stabilize profitability during a period of operating challenges and global tariff pressures.
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We’ll examine how Nissan’s move to export China-made cars could influence its investment narrative and recovery efforts in key regions.
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To own Nissan shares today, an investor would need to believe in Nissan’s ability to restore its earnings profile through aggressive cost controls, successful execution of its China export plan with Dongfeng Motor, and recovery in core markets amid competitive and tariff pressures. The recent earnings guidance revision signals a smaller short-term operating loss, driven by one-off cost items, yet it does little to ease concerns over ongoing tariff impacts and negative free cash flow, which remain the main catalyst and risk for the stock.
Among recent announcements, Nissan’s full-year earnings guidance now includes a projected operating loss of JPY 275 billion, explicitly reflecting the effects of US tariffs. This directly ties to the most pressing catalyst: whether initiatives like exporting China-made vehicles and ongoing restructuring can counteract cost headwinds, and help prevent further strain on Nissan’s liquidity and margin recovery prospects.
However, investors should pay close attention to the risk that, despite recent positives, persistent cash outflows and tariff impacts could…
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Nissan Motor’s outlook anticipates ¥12,909.5 billion in revenue and ¥203.3 billion in earnings by 2028. This scenario assumes a 1.5% annual revenue growth rate and an increase of ¥1,018.5 billion in earnings from the current level of ¥-815.2 billion.
Uncover how Nissan Motor’s forecasts yield a ¥336 fair value, a 4% downside to its current price.
Simply Wall St Community members posted 3 fair value estimates for Nissan Motor, ranging from ¥110.65 to ¥430. The wide span of valuation views comes as the company faces ongoing operating losses and execution risks in its turnaround, inviting you to compare many perspectives on Nissan’s future direction.