TOTO (TSE:5332) has just issued an updated full-year earnings forecast, lowering its outlook for the fiscal year ending March 2026. The revision follows interim results that outperformed expectations, supported by solid business in Asia and semiconductor-related demand.
See our latest analysis for TOTO.
TOTO’s announcement comes on the heels of modest year-to-date share price gains, up 3.38%. Even as the one-year total shareholder return remains in negative territory at -8.27%, upbeat interim performance and steady dividends caught some market attention. However, the muted longer-term returns suggest that sentiment is still cautious and momentum has not yet truly turned around.
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With the guidance now reset and shares still trading at a modest discount to analyst targets, is TOTO an undervalued opportunity for patient investors, or are markets already accounting for any brighter prospects ahead?
TOTO is trading at a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 0.9x, which positions its valuation above the broader Japanese building industry. With the last close at ¥3,859, the market appears to be assigning a richer multiple to TOTO relative to peers.
The price-to-sales ratio assesses how much investors are paying for each unit of revenue. For industrial companies like TOTO, it’s a helpful indicator, especially when net earnings are volatile or impacted by one-off events. Unlike earnings, revenue generally remains less distorted by non-recurring items. This makes the P/S ratio useful for comparing similar firms within this sector.
Despite this higher multiple, TOTO’s valuation is considered good when measured against the average of its listed peers, which share the same 0.9x P/S ratio. However, it stands expensive compared to the broader industry P/S average of 0.5x. Factoring in the estimated fair price-to-sales ratio of 1.6x, there is an argument the market could eventually price the stock higher if revenue and market sentiment improve.
Explore the SWS fair ratio for TOTO
Result: Price-to-Sales of 0.9x (ABOUT RIGHT)
However, sluggish long-term returns and decelerating near-term momentum could challenge the valuation case if revenue growth does not accelerate as anticipated.
Find out about the key risks to this TOTO narrative.
While the price-to-sales ratio points to fair value, our DCF model takes a different stance. According to this approach, TOTO’s current share price of ¥3,859 stands above our calculated fair value of ¥3,338.87. This suggests the market may be overestimating the company’s future cash flows. Does this mean investors are paying too much for TOTO’s growth potential?