Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR) released its third quarter 2025 results, revealing a year-over-year drop in revenue and a net loss. The update also included lowered shipment guidance for the remainder of the year.
See our latest analysis for Alpha Metallurgical Resources.
Alpha Metallurgical Resources’ share price has struggled to regain traction, with a 1-year total shareholder return of -28.45% and a 16% slide year-to-date. Even as management has taken steps such as buybacks and cost-cutting in response to headwinds, recent losses have tempered momentum following an exceptional 2,000%+ five-year total return. This suggests that short-term risks are currently outweighing long-term value potential in the view of investors.
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With shares now trading well below analyst price targets and the company showing resilience in managing costs and liquidity, investors must weigh whether Alpha Metallurgical Resources is trading at a discount or if the market has already accounted for the company’s growth outlook.
With Alpha Metallurgical Resources trading at $169.33, and its narrative fair value set at $184.50, there is room for upside if analyst projections hold true. Investors are paying close attention to the company’s ability to defend its premium coal margins while adapting to market constraints, setting the stage for a debate on lasting profitability and risk.
Global underinvestment and persistent supply constraints in metallurgical coal mining, compounded by recent industry idlings and bankruptcies, are likely to elevate future prices and market share for well-capitalized producers like Alpha. This points to potential upside for future revenue and margins as demand recovers or steadies, especially in high-growth markets like India and Brazil.
Read the complete narrative.
Want to know how analysts believe Alpha could outperform the market? Discover the dramatic margin expansion and bold earnings ramp their forecasts are built around. The full narrative doesn’t hold back; get the inside story on the power moves and future ambitions that back this fair value call.
Result: Fair Value of $184.50 (UNDERVALUED)
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However, persistent weak steel demand or rising operational costs could undermine Alpha’s projected recovery. This may dampen the case for a sustained turnaround.