AvePoint (AVPT) just delivered a notable update for investors, announcing strong quarterly earnings with significant increases in revenue and profit compared to the previous year. The company also raised its full-year guidance, signaling renewed momentum.
See our latest analysis for AvePoint.
Despite posting standout earnings and forming a strategic partnership with a key Microsoft channel group, AvePoint’s share price has pulled back recently, dropping over 20% in the past month and sitting down roughly 27% year-to-date. However, its three-year total shareholder return is an impressive 159%, showing long-term holders have been well rewarded even as short-term momentum has faded.
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With AvePoint delivering robust growth, boosting guidance, and gaining fresh Wall Street support, investors are left to consider if the recent selloff is an overreaction that offers value or if all future gains are already reflected in the price.
With AvePoint closing at $12.08 and the most-followed narrative putting fair value over 40% higher, expectations are diverging from the current market pricing. The narrative’s thesis leans heavily on the company’s platform expansion and its evolving industry role.
The accelerating enterprise adoption of AI tools like Microsoft Copilot, alongside increasing security and data governance challenges, is positioning AvePoint’s data management and governance solutions as mission-critical, which is driving robust customer expansions and higher spending per customer. This acts as a catalyst for sustained revenue growth and stronger net retention rates.
Read the complete narrative.
Curious about the bold numerical leaps this narrative is built on? The valuation hinges on a future profit metric more commonly reserved for elite software players and is underpinned by a growth outlook that defies conventional sector averages. Ready to see what is powering this valuation gap? Dive deep to discover which financial projections carry the most weight in the narrative’s fair value.
Result: Fair Value of $21.02 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, rising competition from cloud giants and AvePoint’s continued reliance on Microsoft’s ecosystem could dampen the outlook and limit future gains.
Find out about the key risks to this AvePoint narrative.
Looking from a market multiples angle, AvePoint’s price-to-sales ratio stands at 6.6x, which is notably higher than both the US Software industry average of 4.9x and the peer group average of 4.8x. This premium could signal higher expectations baked into the price, increasing the risk if growth falls short. The fair ratio, calculated at 5.8x, sits below the current mark. Could the market eventually reset closer to this benchmark, or will AvePoint’s momentum justify its elevated valuation?