Here’s What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

It’s been a good week for Deutsche Post AG (ETR:DHL) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 8.1% to €43.01. Revenues were €20b, approximately in line with whatthe analysts expected, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) crushed expectations, coming in at €0.75, an impressive 24% ahead of estimates. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there’s been a strong change in the company’s prospects, or if it’s business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Following last week’s earnings report, Deutsche Post’s 14 analysts are forecasting 2026 revenues to be €85.5b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to increase 3.6% to €3.27. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €85.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of €3.24 in 2026. The consensus analysts don’t seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there’s been no major change to their estimates.

View our latest analysis for Deutsche Post

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of €42.81, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so – it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Deutsche Post at €60.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €34.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It’s pretty clear that there is an expectation that Deutsche Post’s revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 1.4% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 3.2% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 3.8% annually. So it’s pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Deutsche Post.

The most important thing to take away is that there’s been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it’s tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Deutsche Post’s revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year’s earnings. We have estimates – from multiple Deutsche Post analysts – going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we’ve discovered 1 warning sign for Deutsche Post that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.