By Christine Ji
CoreWeave’s stock has tumbled recently, but some analysts think a massive surge in backlogged contracts could spark a comeback
CoreWeave signed several large contracts with companies like Meta and Nvidia in the third quarter.
Shares of CoreWeave Inc. have been battered in recent months over concerns about the sustainability of the company’s growth. But unceasing artificial-intelligence momentum might just reignite enthusiasm for the company as it reports third-quarter earnings on Monday.
Wall Street analysts will be on the lookout for five clues in particular for investors that a comeback may be in the works.
CoreWeave (CRWV), which provides specialized cloud infrastructure for some of the biggest tech companies in the market, has been a critical part of the AI buildout. However, the stock performance has been volatile. While CoreWeave shares surged in the initial months after the company’s initial public offering back in March of this year, they’ve fallen over 30% since the company reported second-quarter earnings on Aug. 13.
The price drop isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Jefferies analyst Brent Thill wrote in a note last week that CoreWeave’s stock currently has a “very attractive” risk-reward profile. His $180 price target implies about 75% upside from current levels.
According to Thill, the “biggest focus” for CoreWeave’s earnings will be on the company’s remaining performance obligations, or the future revenue from contracts not yet fulfilled. During the third quarter, CoreWeave signed several multibillion-dollar contracts with customers such as OpenAI, Meta Platforms Inc. (META) and Nvidia Corp. (NVDA), which Thill believes could raise its RPO to $60 billion, from $30 billion last quarter.
Read: Will CoreWeave bears get burned? New Nvidia deals spark fresh optimism for the stock.
One concern that CoreWeave bears have pointed out is the company’s dependence on a few large customers. Monday’s earnings report could offer increased visibility on CoreWeave’s customer mix.
“As demand is only seeming to increase, we continue to see a strong possibility for acceleration in [fiscal 2026] with a safer strategy as management pushes for customer diversification and longer five- to six-year contracts,” Citi analyst Tyler Radke wrote in a recent note.
Radke raised his price target on the stock to $192 from $164 ahead of earnings, citing continued demand for AI computing, especially from CoreWeave’s Big Tech customers.
Thill and Radke will be also be looking for commentary surrounding CoreWeave’s access to power, which has been a critical bottleneck. CoreWeave Chief Executive Michael Intrator shared in a Bloomberg interview last month that the company had secured 2.8 gigawatts of contracted power, up 600 megawatts from the second quarter.
Increased access to power and more large-scale contracts should help CoreWeave execute on its demand backlog and lead to “outsized” revenue beats in excess of $100 million in the third and fourth quarters, Radke wrote. The Citi analyst anticipates that CoreWeave will report $1.3 billion in revenue for the third quarter, a 124% year-over-year increase. The Wall Street analyst consensus for revenue is lower, at $1.21 billion.
Investors will also be curious about CoreWeave’s capital-expenditure plans, as the company has spent aggressively so far in 2025 to build more AI infrastructure. Radke expects a significant quarter-over-quarter increase in capex spend, especially as CoreWeave continues to ramp up deployment of Nvidia’s Blackwell chips in light of the new deal announcements.
CoreWeave’s capital-intensive business does pose a potential risk to the stock price, as the company has taken on a significant debt load and could need to issue more debt in the future. The useful life of CoreWeave’s data-center assets could also be shorter than expected, which would erode into margins. Last quarter, CoreWeave reported a larger-than-expected adjusted net loss, due to high infrastructure spending.
As a result of its capex spend, Radke believes investors shouldn’t expect CoreWeave to be profitable in the near term. However, he is optimistic that it will post a smaller net loss than Wall Street is expecting this quarter, and anticipates that the company will have “significant profitability improvements” late next year and into 2027.
Also read: CoreWeave’s stock has been red hot, but this rival may be a better investment
-Christine Ji
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11-09-25 1200ET
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