By Joy Wiltermuth
Tech and speculative assets are now in focus after the Nasdaq’s worst week since April
The “buy everything” rally since April now feels like an uphill battle.
It doesn’t feel like a “buy everything” market anymore.
Last week’s sharp pullback in tech stocks could easily turn into yet another buy-the-dip moment in the week ahead, like other times since April’s tariff-induced market plunge.
Bitcoin’s (BTCUSD) brush up against a new bear market could also prove fleeting, and the recent sharp selloff in other speculative corners of the market that began in late October might easily reverse.
Yet this moment seems a bit different – as though markets might be more fragile, and investors could be less inclined to simply stomp on the gas pedal at the first sign of any pullback.
“You aren’t going to get the timing right,” said Jim Baird, chief investment officer at Plante Moran Financial Advisors. “I’m not trying to guess what’s going to happen over the next week or month.” But the recent pain in areas that have “run a little hotter” is indicating that investors “are taking a little bit more cautious approach to the rally from April’s lows,” he said.
It’s been a pretty solid run for risk assets, Baird noted. But there have been cracks in credit markets, talk of more credit “cockroaches,” and other ominous indicators keeping investors on edge, in addition to a glaring “blind spot” in economic data during the ongoing, historic government shutdown.
“It isn’t as if everything is coming up roses,” Baird said of the rally since April. “Whether it’s economic, policy or geopolitical risks, there’s a lot for investors to absorb.”
Read: The shutdown is starting to ‘bite the economy,’ top Trump aide warns. The Senate is struggling to make a deal.
AI froth in focus
November typically ends up being a strong month for the stock market. But missed paychecks, nationwide flight cancellations and other ramifications of the government shutdown have paved the way for an unsteady start to the month.
The Nasdaq Composite COMP retreated 3% last week, logging its worst week since the early April tariff tumult, while the S&P 500 SPX shed 1.6% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA closed the week 1.2% lower, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
The pullback wasn’t terribly surprising. The S&P 500 remains up nearly 15% on the year despite higher tariffs, growing doubts about the job market and a fresh reading on the mood of U.S. consumers showing sentiment neared a record low in November.
Overall solid corporate earnings also didn’t prevent jitters around stock valuations and artificial-intelligence spending plans from returning, as well as concerns about when large tech companies might earn a return on those AI investments.
A look at the five top “hyperscalers” shows spending could hit $600 billion in two years at Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN), Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), Google parent Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) (GOOG), Meta Platforms Inc. (META) and Oracle Corp. (ORCL), according to Thomas Shipp, head of equity research at LPL Financial.
Spending by five top “hyperscalers” in the AI race is projected to hit $600 billion in 2027
“I’m not worried about the AI capex spend,” said Bryant VanCronkhite, a senior equity portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments. Despite “moments” when markets can pull back quickly, he said he’s more focused on the long-term opportunity.
“Every dollar is not being spent wisely, but a lot of them are being spent effectively,” VanCronkhite said.
Looking for catalysts
Another factor creating twinges of anxiety in markets has been the recent upward pressure in short-term funding markets, especially as they reared up at the end of October.
While that eased last week, higher costs to transact overnight can be a warning sign of bigger troubles in the plumbing of the financial system – particularly if funding pressures persists beyond the typical month-end, quarter-end or year-end periods.
Some investors pointed to reduced liquidity in the financial system as a factor in bitcoin’s brief dip below the key $100,000 level last week, after its sharp drop from October’s record territory.
Guy LeBas, chief fixed-income strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott, said he thinks it’s a stretch to pin weakness in stocks and riskier assets on the Federal Reserve and recent “minor strains” in overnight funding markets.
“It has nothing to do with Fed policy in 9 out of 10 cases,” LeBas said. “Another way to summarize it [would be] investors who are long risk assets are complaining of reduced demand for risk assets.”
That said, “unsustainable behavior” by some investors in some corners of the market have been a worry to Allspring’s VanCronkhite, especially when looking beyond large-cap stocks to midcap and small-cap RUT sectors.
“They’re buying everything tied to themes when, very clearly, not everything is going to be a long-term win,” VanCronkhite said. He added that he hopes investors soon get into “the sorting-out phase,” where “garbage” investments are distinguished from those with staying power.
Meanwhile, even gold’s (GC00) eye-watering, more than 50% rally on the year might be in a consolidation phase, said Aakash Doshi, head of gold strategy at State Street Investment Management.
The precious metal was up about 0.3% so far in November, hovering around $4,000 an ounce on Friday. Doshi said he thinks gold likely ends the year around that same level, “give or take 5%.”
The week ahead likely won’t see the government shutdown come to an end, if betting markets end up being correct. Veterans Day on Tuesday will see the stock market remain open, but the bond market will be closed. There also will be plenty of Fed officials speaking during the week.
-Joy Wiltermuth
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11-09-25 1200ET
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