MARKET WRAPS
Watch For:
No major economic events or corporate trading updates expected
Opening Call:
European stock futures traded higher early Monday. Asian stock benchmarks were mixed; the dollar weakened; Treasury yields were up; while oil futures and gold fell.
Equities:
Stock futures were up at the start of the week. The gains took hold after President Trump told reporters that he plans to name a new Federal Reserve governor this week, after Adriana Kugler stepped down Friday, as well as a new leader of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, after he fired Commissioner Erika McEntarfer on Friday following worse-than-expected jobs data. The moves could help Trump solidify his economic agenda.
Forex:
Trump’s firing of McEntarfer after the agency published new data showing that U.S. hiring slowed sharply this summer has deeply troubled some in the money markets.
Trump said the data was “rigged.” The risk of actual or perceived manipulation of U.S. labor data-which could be as simple as stopping publishing some data based on the experience with environmental and health statistics-would add to volatility in financial markets, said Kieran Davies, chief macro strategist at Coolabah Capital.
The unease also comes amid attacks on the independence of the Federal Reserve. ANZ said financial market participants highly value independence of data reporting and the move to fire McEntarfer “could justifiably be seen as another dent in the U.S. standing as the world’s economic safe haven.”
Bonds:
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield’s downward momentum seems to be building, though this momentum isn’t strong for now, said UOB. On Friday, the 10-year yield fell sharply and tested the base of the weekly Ichimoku cloud, the bank added.
For a continued decline, the 10-year yield must close below this cloud’s base, which is currently at 4.204%. If the 10-year yield breaks clearly below this key support, the focus will shift to the weekly rising trendline at 4.025%, UOB said.
Energy:
Oil fell amid a darkening U.S. economic outlook spurred by a wave of weak data, analysts said. “A sharply cooling U.S. jobs market and the fastest contraction in factory activity in nine months raised concerns of weaker demand” for crude oil, ANZ Research analysts said.
Media reports that OPEC+ agreed over the weekend that the group will increase oil production by 547,000 barrels a day in September could also be weighing on oil prices.
Metals:
Gold edged lower in Asian trading on a likely technical correction. However, gold’s decline may be limited by rising expectations for Fed rate cuts that bolster the appeal of the nonyielding precious metal. The jobs data was “in no uncertain terms, a wake-up call,” said Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index and FOREX.com.
“The Fed’s dual mandate includes employment, and this data screams weakness. The [Fed] doves are circling.”
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Copper was slightly higher. Trade developments, including front-loading and a shift in global trade flows, continue to support industrial metal prices, ANZ Research said.
However, copper is showing emerging signs of demand weakness amid dwindling London Metal Exchange stockpiles, the commodity strategists said.
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Iron ore edged higher amid solid demand. The ferrous metal’s prices remain resilient even as markets have digested Beijing’s new focus on reducing overcapacity, Nanhua Futures said. Also, rising profit margins for steel mills will likely support sustainable production, it added.
TODAY’S TOP HEADLINES
It’s a Scorching Hot Summer for Deals on Wall Street. Vacation Can Wait.
Late summer is typically one of the slowest times for dealmakers. Not this one.
A sudden rebound in corporate tie-ups has bankers and lawyers scrambling. Vacation homes are sitting empty, families are being left in the lurch-and dealmakers are more energized than they have been in years.
China Is Choking Supply of Critical Minerals to Western Defense Companies
China is limiting the flow of critical minerals to Western defense manufacturers, delaying production and forcing companies to scour the world for stockpiles of the minerals needed to make everything from bullets to jet fighters.
Earlier this year, as U.S.-China trade tensions soared, Beijing tightened the controls it places on the export of rare earths. While Beijing allowed them to start flowing after the Trump administration agreed in June to a series of trade concessions, China has maintained a lock on critical minerals for defense purposes. China supplies around 90% of the world’s rare earths and dominates the production of many other critical minerals.
It’s a pivotal week for earnings – and a reality check for consumers battling tariffs and high prices
Wall Street’s optimism has proven surprisingly durable – even with tariffs back in the headlines. In fact, analysts nudged third-quarter profit estimates higher in recent weeks, according to FactSet. It marked a rare uptick of 0.1% in earnings-per-share estimates for the S&P 500 companies through July – a small move, but notable given that estimates are typically reduced over time.
Second-quarter earnings are already in for about two out of every three S&P 500 companies, and so far, 82% have topped profit expectations, FactSet said.
Trump’s ‘Slap in the Face’ Puts Neutral Switzerland in Trade-War Crossfire
MEZZOVICO-VIRA, Switzerland-When Nicola Tettamanti looked at his phone Friday morning, his first reaction was disbelief: Overnight, President Trump had slapped Switzerland with close to the highest tariffs of any country in the world.
Tettamanti is the chief executive of a 55-year-old precision toolmaking business nestled in this mountain-hugged town. He had planned in the near future to expand further into the U.S. by opening an office in Indiana.
Ukraine’s Supporters Plan New NATO Fund to Buy U.S. Weapons
Ukraine’s supporters will set up a new NATO holding account to allow allies to buy billions of dollars of U.S. weapons for Ukraine, part of President Trump’s latest scheme to arm Kyiv, according to three Western officials.
The creation of the new account marks the first tangible step in making Trump’s vow to have North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies pay for U.S. weapons for Ukraine a reality. Trump and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte announced the deal last month but didn’t provide details.
Microsoft Is an AI Darling, but Its Core Businesses Are Booming Too
Microsoft’s blockbuster earnings last week cemented its status as one of the biggest winners of the artificial-intelligence boom. Investors should draw additional comfort from what is happening with less fanfare elsewhere in its business.
Outside the AI race, Microsoft is minting money from corporate customers spending on regular technology-long a sweet spot for the company.
Write to singaporeeditors@dowjones.com
Expected Major Events for Monday
06:00/ROM: Jun PPI
06:00/DEN: Jun Industrial production & new orders
06:30/SWI: Jul CPI
07:00/SPN: Jul Unemployment
07:00/TUR: Jul PPI
07:00/TUR: Jul CPI
07:30/SWI: Jul procure.ch Purchasing Managers’ Index
15:00/DEN: Jul Foreign Exchange & Liquidity
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This article is a text version of a Wall Street Journal newsletter published earlier today.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
August 04, 2025 00:25 ET (04:25 GMT)
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