While it may not be enough for some shareholders, we think it is good to see the Wilmar International Limited (SGX:F34) share price up 14% in a single quarter. But if you look at the last five years the returns have not been good. You would have done a lot better buying an index fund, since the stock has dropped 22% in that half decade.
So let’s have a look and see if the longer term performance of the company has been in line with the underlying business’ progress.
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There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company’s share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
During the five years over which the share price declined, Wilmar International’s earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 3.5% each year. Readers should note that the share price has fallen faster than the EPS, at a rate of 5% per year, over the period. So it seems the market was too confident about the business, in the past.
You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
It’s probably worth noting we’ve seen significant insider buying in the last quarter, which we consider a positive. On the other hand, we think the revenue and earnings trends are much more meaningful measures of the business. Dive deeper into the earnings by checking this interactive graph of Wilmar International’s earnings, revenue and cash flow.
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for Wilmar International the TSR over the last 5 years was -3.0%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
Wilmar International provided a TSR of 14% over the last twelve months. But that was short of the market average. On the bright side, that’s still a gain, and it is certainly better than the yearly loss of about 0.6% endured over half a decade. It could well be that the business is stabilizing. It’s always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Wilmar International better, we need to consider many other factors. For example, we’ve discovered 2 warning signs for Wilmar International (1 is significant!) that you should be aware of before investing here.