What Chevron (CVX)’s AI Power Expansion and Buyback Surge Mean for Shareholders

• At its recent Investor Day, Chevron unveiled a long-term roadmap targeting more than 10% annual free cash flow growth, US$10–20 billion in annual share buybacks through 2030, and entry into supplying natural gas-fired power for AI data centers, with its first project set for West Texas by 2027.
• This marks a significant push by Chevron to build shareholder value while diversifying into new energy segments aligned with accelerating demand for data center power fueled by AI adoption.
• We’ll explore how Chevron’s ambitious stock buyback plan and expansion into AI-driven energy solutions may alter its investment outlook.

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Chevron Investment Narrative Recap

To be a Chevron shareholder, you need confidence in the company’s ability to sustain oil and gas cash flows amid the energy transition and capitalize on production growth and efficiency gains as outlined in its 2030 roadmap. The recent announcement of leadership changes in Chevron’s finance team, notably the appointment of Amit R. Ghai as Controller effective March 2026, is unlikely to materially affect the company’s near-term catalysts, namely, integration of the Hess acquisition and execution on cost reductions, or meaningfully shift its largest risk, long-term oil demand pressure and slow diversification.

Among recent milestones, Chevron’s outlined share buyback target of US$10–20 billion per year to 2030 stands out. This ambitious capital return plan is most relevant when assessing the company’s ability to deliver against its free cash flow growth targets and maintain high shareholder returns, especially as it addresses the evolving energy mix.
Despite these strengths, investors should also be aware that unlike revenue growth, Chevron’s relative lack of rapid diversification leaves it exposed if…

Read the full narrative on Chevron (it’s free!)

Chevron’s outlook anticipates $196.0 billion in revenue and $21.8 billion in earnings by 2028. This scenario depends on a 1.2% annual revenue growth rate and a $8.1 billion increase in earnings from the current $13.7 billion.

Uncover how Chevron’s forecasts yield a $172.04 fair value, a 9% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Simply Wall St Community members offered 27 individual fair value estimates for Chevron, spanning US$125.69 to US$325.49 per share. While many anticipate production growth and cost reductions, opinions can differ widely, consider how slow movement into renewables may shape Chevron’s long-term resilience.

Explore 27 other fair value estimates on Chevron – why the stock might be worth 20% less than the current price!

Build Your Own Chevron Narrative

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data
and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your
financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.
Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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