Hong Kong’s economy is expected to maintain its expansion into next year, underpinned by resilient exports, firm investment sentiment and recovering consumer demand, Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po said on Sunday.
Writing in his weekly blog, Chan said the city’s exports in 2026 will be supported by a moderately growing global economy, as most international institutions anticipate, and by a recent easing in trade tensions. Locally, improving consumer and business sentiment will sustain spending and investment.
The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region government will seize emerging opportunities while staying vigilant to external risks, such as uncertainty surrounding the pace of US interest rate cuts and potential shifts in global trade, the finance chief said.
The SAR’s gross domestic product has been expanding for 11 consecutive quarters on a year-on-year basis. In the third quarter of this year, the GDP grew by 3.8 percent in real terms — the strongest in more than 18 months.
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With robust performance in exports, consumption and investment, the SAR government has revised up its full-year growth forecast for 2025 to 3.2 percent from the previous range of 2 to 3 percent.
Merchandise exports in the first three quarters surged 11.3 percent in real terms, powered by shipments to the Chinese mainland and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, which jumped 14.6 percent and 27.1 percent in volume terms, respectively.
Moreover, Chan noted, the continued rise in fixed investment and local consumption has provided a solid underpinning for economic growth, reinforced by sustained capital inflows, a buoyant stock market and a stabilizing property sector.
The Hang Seng Index — the local stock market benchmark — has risen more than 30 percent so far this year. Average daily turnover in the first 10 months reached HK$258 billion ($33.17 billion) — nearly double that of last year’s full-year average. Over the same period, 81 new listings had raised around HK$216 billion — almost triple the amount a year earlier. This has placed Hong Kong as the world’s top initial public offering destination.
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Hong Kong’s status as a financial hub continues to draw global wealth. Since 2022, more than 200 family offices have established or expanded operations in the city with the help of investment promotion agency InvestHK. By the end of last year, assets under management had exceeded HK$35 trillion, up 13 percent year-on-year. These strong factors have helped lift financial services exports by 11 percent this year, contributing over a tenth of GDP growth.
The property market has also turned the corner amid a strong local economy and US interest-rate cuts from September, Chan said.
Sales activities of non-residential properties have picked up from a year ago, and vacancy rates in major shopping districts have fallen since early this year although prices and rents have remained soft.
Riding high on Hong Kong’s recovery momentum, more companies have stepped up investment in offices, some buying multiple floors or entire buildings, and overseas financial institutions increasing their leases of Grade-A space.
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Tourism has rebounded steadily, with visitor arrivals in the first 10 months climbing 12 percent year-on-year to 41 million, benefiting the catering and retail sectors.
With the economy maintaining strong momentum and market sentiment improving, Chan said, the latest unemployment and underemployment figures to be released on Tuesday are expected to show continued stability.
irisli@chinadailyhk.com