As an investor its worth striving to ensure your overall portfolio beats the market average. But the risk of stock picking is that you will likely buy under-performing companies. Unfortunately, that’s been the case for longer term Rivco Australia Ltd (ASX:RIV) shareholders, since the share price is down 12% in the last three years, falling well short of the market return of around 33%.
With that in mind, it’s worth seeing if the company’s underlying fundamentals have been the driver of long term performance, or if there are some discrepancies.
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In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
Although the share price is down over three years, Rivco Australia actually managed to grow EPS by 21% per year in that time. Given the share price reaction, one might suspect that EPS is not a good guide to the business performance during the period (perhaps due to a one-off loss or gain). Or else the company was over-hyped in the past, and so its growth has disappointed.
We’re actually a quite surprised to see the share price down while EPS have grown strongly. Therefore, we should look at some other metrics to try to understand why the market is disappointed.
We note that the dividend seems healthy enough, so that probably doesn’t explain the share price drop. We like that Rivco Australia has actually grown its revenue over the last three years. But it’s not clear to us why the share price is down. It might be worth diving deeper into the fundamentals, lest an opportunity goes begging.
The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
We know that Rivco Australia has improved its bottom line lately, but what does the future have in store? If you are thinking of buying or selling Rivco Australia stock, you should check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of Rivco Australia, it has a TSR of 3.4% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!