(PRO Views are exclusive to PRO subscribers, giving them insight on the news of the day direct from a real investing pro. See the full discussion above.) Nvidia’s quarterly report this week is the biggest catalyst to watch in the current “bend but don’t break kind of market,” New York Stock Exchange insider Jay Woods tells traders. Nvidia — set to report after the bell on Wednesday — is expected to inform Wall Street on the strength of the artificial intelligence trade moving forward, particularly with the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite on track to snap a seven-month win streak. The chipmaker’s results come at a time when investors are questioning sky-high valuations tied to major technology stocks and wondering how long the AI-powered bull market rally will last. Questions about the depreciation cycles of Nvidia’s GPUs are also getting louder. “We all know one thing and one thing is only on traders’ mind this week and that’s one earnings — it’s Nvidia,” said Woods, chief market strategist at Freedom Capital Markets. “It’s not hyperbole, it is the most important earnings of the year. Why? Because it’s almost 8% of the S & P 500. It’s in the Dow Jones Industrial average. It’s part of the Nasdaq-100, roughly 10% … so, Nvidia’s gonna move markets.” Nvidia also holds a huge weight in big technology-focused exchange traded funds, the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) and the Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) he noted. Woods is watching to see if Nvidia can hold above the $185 level. The stock last closed at $190.17 but traded around $186 per share on Monday. Shares of the company are up more than 38% year to date but have slid nearly 8% this month. “What do we want? We’re watching technically 185. This seems to be the level. We broke above it, ran to almost $212, and then we failed,” Woods said. “Everyone’s talking about AI, the spend, the valuations. Jensen Huang’s gonna give us a little peek as to how things are going. And as Nvidia goes, the rest of the market should go.” NVDA 1Y mountain Nvidia stock performance over the past year. (Watch full video above.) What else Woods is watching this week: September’s nonfarm payrolls report expected Thursday, which would be the first economic data release following the record-setting U.S. government shutdown This week’s Federal Reserve speeches, which entail Governor Stephen Miran on Wednesday and Governor Lisa Cook on Thursday, as traders’ rate cut expectations dial back Earnings from key retail companies, notably Home Depot and TJX Companies . Woods is watching Home Depot’s 200-day moving average to see if the stock can break above $380 per share. With TJX soaring to new highs last week, Woods is looking to see if the discount retailer’s rally can continue and hold above the $145 level in case a pullback occurs. (This weekly Monday video is exclusively for CNBC PRO subscribers.)
Nvidia earnings are the most important of the year, pro trader says
