NASA has moved the goalposts for companies seeking to replace the aging International Space Station (ISS) and changed the minimum capability required to four crew for one-month “increments.” The change means that the permanent occupation of the ISS will be a thing of the past, at least as far as the US space agency is concerned.
The new directive [PDF] reflects an unfolding reality at NASA. The US space agency’s budget is unlikely to be as big as it was when NASA kicked off the Commercial Low Earth Orbit Destinations Program, the ISS has only a few years left before it is to be de-orbited by a SpaceX vehicle, and priorities within the agency are changing.
NASA bosses have long known that time was running out for the ISS, and agreements have been signed with companies such as Axiom Space for crewed modules that could be attached and then detached from the ISS prior to ditching it. Axiom recently shuffled its assembly sequence to remove dependence on the ISS.
Those arrangements were all part of phase 1 of the Commercial LEO Development Program’s (CLDP) acquisition strategy, during which it was planning the design and development of commercial space stations. Phase 1 also included a pair of funded Space Act Agreements (SAAs) with Blue Origin and Starlab Space to develop commercial free-flying destinations.
However, according to the memo, there is a $4 billion budget shortfall in the strategy for phase 2, during which NASA was supposed to certify one or more of the proposed plans. The bequest for FY2026 includes $272.3 million for the fiscal year and $2.1 billion over the next five years for developing and deploying new commercial space stations.
So, what to do? The directive calls for things to move quickly in light of the impending demise of the ISS to avoid a gap in crew-capable space operations. It also dials down the requirements through “a modification to the current approach for LEO platforms.”
That modification includes a shift away from a firm fixed-price contract (deemed “high risk” due to projected budget shortfalls) in favor of funded SAAs, which, according to the memo, “better aligns with enabling development of US industry platforms.” The change will also “provide more flexibility to deal with possible variations in funding levels without the need of potentially protracted and inefficient contract renegotiations.”
And then there’s the crew. Rather than a permanent presence in orbit, the directive now calls for a minimum capability for four crew for one-month increments, which suggests that a future commercial station would only need occasional crewed visits as far as NASA is concerned. The “increments” part is a significant downgrade from the “Full Operating Capability” that was originally required by December 2031 and included “two NASA crew continuously in LEO for 6-month missions.”
The change is quite dramatic and could mean an end to the continuous presence of humans in orbit. However, it is also a little more realistic considering the agency’s funding levels and reflects what can actually be done in the time remaining and with the money available.
A NASA spokesperson told The Register, “To reduce the potential for a gap of a crew capable platform in low Earth Orbit, NASA is moving quickly to revise its current acquisition strategy for Commercial Low Earth Orbit Destinations Phase 2. This includes shifting from firm-fixed price contracts to continuing to support U.S. industry’s designs and demonstrations through Space Act Agreements.” ®