By Steve Gelsi
Vistra’s stock rallies after the power company reports that revenue came up short of expectations despite a boost from heat waves, but raises its outlook for profit potential next year
Power companies have been scaling up facilities such as Constellation Energy’s Clinton nuclear plant in Illinois, shown above, to meet demand from AI and other needs.
Vistra Corp.’s stock rose Thursday after the power company lifted its estimate for potential profitability next year, citing the rising demand for electricity to power data centers used for artificial intelligence and the mining of cryptocurrencies.
On this front, Vistra said it has received a “ton of interest” in its effort to find more data-center power buyers for its Comanche Peak nuclear-power complex in Texas, but it declined to provide a timeline for completing a deal.
The company also implied that President Donald Trump’s trade policies are supporting the new demand trend.
Vistra (VST), which generates electricity from natural gas, nuclear and solar power, believes the increased demand is here to stay, as it was in the 1990s, when the internet and growing use of computing power changed the power-generation game.
“While third-party forecast and utility estimates have wide variation, we continue to see a structural shift in electricity consumption, with recent growth in electricity demand across the country returning to pre-2000 trends after approximately two decades of stagnation,” said Chief Executive Jim Burke, according to an AlphaSense transcript of the call with analysts.
While recent heat waves in the Northeast fueled a spike in demand not seen in about 14 years, Burke said the longer-term growth in energy use will top the current growth in peak energy demand. The reason is the increased use of existing power assets by large customers in the data-center, cryptocurrency and other industrial businesses.
Read more about how nuclear power is being used to power data centers for AI.
What’s also driving this new demand trend is the Trump administration’s push to drive investment into the U.S. to increase manufacturing capacity, which will require more electric power.
See related: Nuclear-power stocks rise as Trump signs orders to aid sector. Progress may be slow, analyst warns.
The stock rose 2.4% to $205.59 a share at the closing bell to reverse an earlier intraday loss of as much as 5.4%. The stock is now about 4% below its Aug. 4 record close of $214.06 a share.
On the Comanche Peak data-center power deal, Burke said, “I feel very good about where things stand in getting a deal done.”
Evercore ISI analyst Nicholas Amicucci reiterated an outperform rating on Vistra, increased his price target on the stock to $237 a share from $230 a share and said the company’s Comanche Peak update provided a lift to its stock price earlier in the day.
“The interest in the company’s asset fleet seemingly only increases as time passes,” Amicucci said in a research note. “The incremental confidence conveyed by management suggests at least one [deal] by year-end 2025.”
Second-quarter revenue rose 10.5% from a year ago to $4.25 billion but missed the FactSet consensus estimate of $4.74 billion, despite increased demand for power during the quarter.
And net income fell 30% to $327 million, mostly because of higher expenses from plant outages. That topped the FactSet consensus of $274.6 million. The company did not provide an earnings-per-share number.
On the bright side, Vistra said it increased the midpoint opportunity for 2026 adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization – a measure used by many to depict underlying profitability – to $6.8 billion in 2026, from its earlier projection of more than $6 billion.
The company defined midpoint opportunities as its estimate of potential opportunities for adjusted Ebitda based on current market assumptions.
Vistra’s stock has soared 48.5% in 2025, while the VanEck Uranium & Nuclear exchange-traded fund NLR has advanced 45.9% and the S&P 500 SPX has gained 7.6%.
-Steve Gelsi
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08-07-25 1632ET
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