The US federal government will not publish official data on inflation for October, depriving policymakers at the Federal Reserve of key information as they consider whether to cut interest rates.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics canceled the release of the closely watched consumer price index (CPI) for October, citing the government shutdown – the longest in history, before it ended earlier this month – and stating it could not “retroactively collect” the data required for the report.
The decision, announced on Friday, heightens uncertainty around the strength of the US economy. Jerome Powell, the Fed chair, had already likened the central bank’s task of guiding the economy, without standard data on its performance, to “driving in the fog”.
Price growth remains above typical levels, according to recent CPI releases. Donald Trump, who for months denied inflation was still high, has in recent weeks taken several steps to tackle concerns around affordability.
Fed officials, under pressure from persistent demands from Trump, are meanwhile weighing whether to cut interest rates. The central bank raised rates aggressively in 2022 and 2023 to combat inflation, and started cautiously cutting them late last year.
Powell has made clear he planned to trade carefully in the absence of important information on the economy’s strength, and direction. “We’re going to collect every scrap of data we can find, evaluate itand think carefully about it,” he said last month. “What do you do if you’re driving in the fog? You slow down.”
That said, a speech by one Fed policymaker lifted expectations of another rate cut in December. John Williams, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said on Friday that he still saw “room for a further adjustment in the near term” to rates.
The latest jobs report, for September, was a mixed bag, with 119,000 jobs added, but the unemployment rate ticked up to its highest level since 2021, and growth estimates for the preceding months were revised lower.
The September jobs report was also disrupted by the shutdown, and released more than a month later. The complete October report will not be released at all, although data on the number of jobs created or lost in that month will be published alongside the full report for November – a week after the next Fed meeting.