Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, U.S. Physical Therapy fair value estimate is US$168
Current share price of US$87.68 suggests U.S. Physical Therapy is potentially 48% undervalued
Analyst price target for USPH is US$107 which is 36% below our fair value estimate
Does the August share price for U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. (NYSE:USPH) reflect what it’s really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock’s intrinsic value by estimating the company’s future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. Don’t get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.
Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.
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We’re using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company’s growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren’t available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today’s dollars:
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Levered FCF ($, Millions)
US$71.7m
US$82.0m
US$89.9m
US$96.7m
US$102.8m
US$108.3m
US$113.3m
US$118.1m
US$122.6m
US$127.0m
Growth Rate Estimate Source
Analyst x2
Analyst x1
Est @ 9.61%
Est @ 7.65%
Est @ 6.28%
Est @ 5.32%
Est @ 4.65%
Est @ 4.18%
Est @ 3.85%
Est @ 3.62%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 6.8%
US$67.1
US$71.9
US$73.8
US$74.4
US$74.1
US$73.1
US$71.6
US$69.9
US$68.0
US$65.9
(“Est” = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St) Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$710m
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 3.1%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today’s value at a cost of equity of 6.8%.
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$3.5b÷ ( 1 + 6.8%)10= US$1.8b
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$2.5b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$87.7, the company appears quite undervalued at a 48% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.
NYSE:USPH Discounted Cash Flow August 10th 2025
We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. You don’t have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company’s future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company’s potential performance. Given that we are looking at U.S. Physical Therapy as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we’ve used 6.8%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. Beta is a measure of a stock’s volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
View our latest analysis for U.S. Physical Therapy
Strength
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Threat
Whilst important, the DCF calculation ideally won’t be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Preferably you’d apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company’s valuation. For example, changes in the company’s cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. Why is the intrinsic value higher than the current share price? For U.S. Physical Therapy, we’ve compiled three additional elements you should assess:
Risks: To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we’ve spotted with U.S. Physical Therapy .
Management:Have insiders been ramping up their shares to take advantage of the market’s sentiment for USPH’s future outlook? Check out our management and board analysis with insights on CEO compensation and governance factors.
Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NYSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
