Wondering if TC Energy is a bargain or overpriced right now? You are not alone. Investors are buzzing about whether the current stock price reflects its true value.
After a 7.7% gain in the past month and an impressive 14.6% return over the last year, TC Energy’s stock has definitely kept things interesting and may be signaling shifting market sentiment.
Some of this momentum has been fueled by headlines about TC Energy’s ongoing progress with its asset divestment strategy and steady development of key pipeline projects, both of which are drawing extra attention from analysts. The news flow is giving investors fresh context for recent price swings, adding more fuel to the valuation debate.
On our latest scorecard, TC Energy gets a 1/6 for value, based on how many key valuation checks it passes as undervalued. Let’s break down what this score really means. Stick around, as we will reveal a smarter way to approach valuation at the end of the article.
TC Energy scores just 1/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.
A Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model estimates a company’s intrinsic value by projecting its future cash flows and discounting them back to the present. This reflects what those future profits are worth today. This approach helps investors determine if a stock is trading above or below its true worth.
For TC Energy, the latest available Free Cash Flow (FCF) is approximately CA$402 million. Analyst consensus projects FCF will rise to about CA$2.0 billion by 2029. Beyond that point, future cash flows are extrapolated by Simply Wall St based on estimated growth trends, given that analysts typically only forecast up to five years ahead.
The DCF calculation arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of CA$45.50 per share using this cash flow trajectory. However, when comparing this figure to the current market price, the model implies the stock is roughly 67.0% overvalued.
This suggests the current market optimism may be running ahead of the fundamentals reflected in TC Energy’s future cash-generating potential, according to this valuation framework.
Result: OVERVALUED
Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests TC Energy may be overvalued by 67.0%. Discover 927 undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.
TRP Discounted Cash Flow as at Nov 2025
Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for TC Energy.
For established, profitable companies like TC Energy, the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is a widely used and reliable valuation metric. The PE ratio helps investors understand how much they are paying for each dollar of a company’s earnings, which is a crucial measure when the company’s profits are steady and predictable.
What determines a “normal” or “fair” PE ratio? Growth expectations and risk play key roles. A higher PE ratio can be justified if a company is expected to grow earnings quickly or is seen as low risk. Conversely, slower growth or higher risk can warrant a lower PE ratio, as investors become less willing to pay a premium for those earnings.
TC Energy currently trades on a PE of 21.2x. This is broadly in line with its peer group average of 21.5x, but noticeably higher than the Oil and Gas industry average of 14.7x. At first glance, this premium may suggest investors are pricing in stronger prospects or greater reliability compared to broader industry peers.
To provide a more tailored perspective, Simply Wall St calculates a “Fair Ratio” for each company. This proprietary benchmark considers unique factors like TC Energy’s earnings growth, industry profile, profit margins, market size, and risk. It is more insightful than broad industry or peer comparisons since it captures the nuances that set each business apart.
For TC Energy, the Fair Ratio stands at 17.2x, significantly below the current multiple. This suggests that, even after adjusting for the company’s distinctive characteristics and environment, the market price still implies a premium that may not be fully justified.
Result: OVERVALUED
TSX:TRP PE Ratio as at Nov 2025
PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1430 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.
Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let’s introduce you to Narratives. A Narrative is simply the story you believe about a company, based on your perspective of its future: how fast you think it will grow, the profits it can earn, and the risks it faces. Narratives allow you to connect your personal view about TC Energy’s future revenue, earnings, and margins directly to a financial forecast, making it easy to see what you think the company is worth.
On Simply Wall St’s Community page, millions of investors use Narratives to quickly build and share their outlooks, linking company stories to fair value estimates that automatically update as new information or news arrives. This helps investors cut through the noise by comparing their own Fair Value with the current market Price, providing clarity on whether it is time to buy or sell.
For TC Energy, for example, some Narratives expect a conservative fair value as low as CA$59 per share, focusing on regulatory risks and pressure on fossil fuels, while more optimistic Narratives project valuations as high as CA$80, betting on sustained demand and strong execution. This approach makes it easy to sense-check your assumptions against a range of market views, all in one place.
Do you think there’s more to the story for TC Energy? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!
TSX:TRP Community Fair Values as at Nov 2025
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include TRP.TO.
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