After more than a week of play and plenty of stops and starts (the weather has hardly cooperated), we’re down to the final eight at the Cincinnati Open, the final WTA 1000 event of the North American hard-court swing.
The quarterfinalists are a healthy mix of top seeds, consistent and reliable contenders and a few under-the-radar surprises. (Aren’t there always?)
This is how they got there, and what they’ll need to do — and who they’ll have to go through — to get to the semifinals.
The Favorites
Aryna Sabalenka
Sabalenka is still the favorite to win this tournament, save for the fact that she played a 3 hour and 9 minute epic against Emma Raducanu on Monday. Will she be fatigued from that match, both mentally and physically? She sure didn’t appear so on Wednesday, defeating the red-hot Jessica Bouzas Maneiro with relative ease. (More) bad news for her opponents: If it gets to a tiebreak, it’s all but over. The defending champion and World No. 1 has taken 18 of 19 tiebreaks in 2025, an Open Era record.
Coco Gauff
Following a quick turnaround from Montreal, where she won the doubles trophy last week, Gauff has gotten a much-needed breather this week. Following a walkover from Dayana Yastremska in the third round and rain postponing play, the World No. 2 played a match for the first time in four days on Thursday and promptly defeated Lucia Bronzetti, 6-2, 6-4, in 1 hour and 19 minutes. Perhaps most encouraging was the fact that she only had three double faults against the Italian, her lowest total since the French Open semifinals. Gauff, you might recall, won this tournament two years ago. She has another great shot this year.
Iga Swiatek
It’s been a solid week for the Wimbledon champion following an earlier-than-expected exit in Montreal. The World No. 3 has taken care of business calmly and efficiently, dispatching unseeded foes Anastasia Potapova and Sorana Cirstea (with a Marta Kostyuk walkover sandwiched in between). She’s never reached the final in Cincinnati, but did reach the semis each of the past two years. Though she hasn’t faced the stiffest of tests to this point, she looks dangerous.
The Contenders
Jasmine Paolini
Paolini has been a bit under the radar this tournament, but she’s looked more like herself in Cincinnati after a first-round loss in Montreal a couple weeks ago. After winning her first three sets in tiebreaks — the first two over Maria Sakkari, and the last over Ashlyn Krueger — the Italian has dropped just four games in the last three sets, including a 6-1, 6-2 win over Barbora Krejcikova in a rematch of the 2024 Wimbledon final. Paolini made the quarters in Cincinnati two years ago, losing to eventual champion Gauff. The rematch on Friday should be fun.
Elena Rybakina
Rybakina is back in the Cincinnati quarterfinals for the second time — she made it to this round in 2022, where she lost to Madison Keys. On Wednesday she upset the sixth-seeded Keys in three sets to reach the final eight. It was the third consecutive come-from-behind win for the Kazakhstani this week, after three-set comebacks against Renata Zarazua and Elise Mertens in her first two matches. Does she have more come-from-behind magic in her? Her biggest test awaits.
Can They Break Through?
Anna Kalinskaya
She already has broken through — at least against Ekaterina Alexandrova. The 28th seed defeated Alexandrova 3-6, 7-6 (5), 6-1 for her first win in seven tries against the World No. 16. And that came after an upset of Wimbledon finalist Amanda Anisimova. It’s been a productive summer for the former World No. 11, who reached the final in Washington, D.C. in July and looks to be in strong form. Kalinskaya has had deep runs at WTA 1000 tournaments and Grand Slams in the past, but a win over Swiatek to reach the Cincinnati semis would qualify as a major career moment.
Veronika Kudermetova
This wouldn’t be a career breakthrough, but reaching the semifinals would certainly be the highlight of her season. The World No. 36 won her fourth consecutive match this week on Thursday night, defeating 31st-seeded Magda Linette in straight sets after beating two other seeded players (Belinda Bencic and Clara Tauson) before that. With Gracheva on deck, a massive opportunity is staring her in the face.
Varvara Gracheva
What a magical week for the 25-year-old Frenchwoman, who came into this tournament ranked 103rd with a sub-.500 record (18-19). All she’s done in Cincinnati is win six consecutive matches, coming through qualifying and upsetting 24th-seeded Sofia Kenin and 11th-seeded Karolina Muchova, her fifth career Top 20 win. Then in the fourth round, she came from a set down to oust Ella Seidel, who had a similarly special week. Will the quarterfinal moment — her first at a WTA 1000 — be too big for her, or is she feeling invincible?
The Matches
Sabalenka vs. Rybakina
These two have a played a ton, with Sabalenka leading the head to head 7-4. Sabalenka won their most recent meeting, a three-set tussle on grass in Berlin. But Rybakina won their last hard-court clash, another three-setter at last year’s WTA Finals in Saudi Arabia.
Swiatek vs. Kalinskaya
You might be surprised that Kalinskaya has the edge in their head to head, winning their lone matchup. Kalinskaya took it rather decisively, 6-4, 6-4, on a hard court in Dubai in 2024.
Gauff vs. Paolini
This is a hell of a quarterfinal match between a two-time Grand Slam champion and a two-time major finalist. This will be their rubber match, as they’ve split their first four meetings. Gauff took the first two matches, both on hard courts — including one in the quarterfinals in Cincinnati in 2023, en route to the title — but Swiatek has won their last two encounters, both this year on clay. Can Paolini get it done on a hard court?
Gracheva vs. Kudermetova
Kudermetova has won both of her matches against Gracheva, though they haven’t played in nearly three years. Both victories were on hard courts, first at the 2021 Australian Open and then in Tunisia a year later.