If you have ever wondered whether HF Sinclair’s current share price reflects the true value of the company, you are not alone. Let’s take a closer look together.
The stock is up 50.6% year-to-date and has surged 35.8% over the past twelve months, indicating that investors may be reassessing its future potential or the risks in play.
Recently, news of HF Sinclair’s strategic investments in renewable energy have caught the market’s eye, raising questions about how these moves might influence long-term profitability. These updates have come alongside industry-wide shifts in energy demand, providing vital context for understanding share price momentum.
Based on our valuation framework, HF Sinclair scores a 1 out of 6 on undervalued metrics, which you can review in detail here. In the next sections, we will break down what this means using several approaches to valuation and introduce a more insightful way to put these numbers into context at the end.
HF Sinclair scores just 1/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.
A Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model estimates a company’s true value by projecting its future free cash flows and discounting them back to today’s value using an appropriate rate. This approach helps investors understand whether the current stock price reflects its real, underlying financial potential.
For HF Sinclair, the latest reported Free Cash Flow (FCF) stands at $784 million. Analysts estimate that by the end of 2027, annual free cash flow could decline to around $415 million, with further projections extending to 2035 using industry growth assumptions. Over the next decade, forecasts show gradually decreasing free cash flows, with Simply Wall St extrapolating beyond what analysts provide directly.
According to this DCF model, the estimated intrinsic value of HF Sinclair’s stock is $38.50 per share. However, this value suggests the market price is currently 37.4% above the fair value implied by the model. In other words, the stock appears significantly overvalued based on the cash flow projections.
Result: OVERVALUED
Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests HF Sinclair may be overvalued by 37.4%. Discover 920 undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.
DINO Discounted Cash Flow as at Nov 2025
Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for HF Sinclair.
The Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is a common valuation tool for profitable companies like HF Sinclair because it illustrates how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of earnings. Choosing the right PE multiple depends on expectations for a company’s growth and the risks associated with its future earnings. Generally, a higher expected growth and lower perceived risk can justify a higher PE ratio.
Currently, HF Sinclair is trading at a PE ratio of 24.9x. This is above the oil and gas industry average of 13.4x, and also sits somewhat below the average of close peers at 29.8x. At first glance, this could suggest HF Sinclair is priced higher than the broad industry, but more modestly compared to its immediate competitors.
Simply Wall St’s “Fair Ratio” provides an estimate of a reasonable PE for HF Sinclair, incorporating factors such as earnings growth prospects, profit margins, market cap, risks, and its industry. The Fair Ratio for HF Sinclair is 18.7x, which is lower than its current 24.9x. This approach considers company- and sector-specific dynamics rather than relying solely on simple averages.
Since HF Sinclair’s actual PE is notably above its Fair Ratio, the stock currently appears overvalued on this basis.
Result: OVERVALUED
NYSE:DINO PE Ratio as at Nov 2025
PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1443 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.
Earlier, we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let’s introduce you to Narratives. In simple terms, a Narrative is your story about a company. It combines your perspective on HF Sinclair’s future with numbers such as your own fair value, projected revenue, and profit margins. Narratives connect this story to a financial forecast and then to a fair value estimate, helping you see more clearly why you might buy, hold, or sell.
Narratives make investing more intuitive by letting you use real data and your opinions, rather than relying solely on standard ratios or external analyst targets. On Simply Wall St’s Community page, you can easily create and share Narratives, and see how millions of other investors are thinking about the same stock.
With Narratives, you can quickly compare your fair value with the current market price, making it much easier to decide if now is the right time to buy or sell. Since Narratives update dynamically whenever new information such as earnings releases or breaking news is published, your investment thesis stays relevant and up-to-date.
For example, some investors see HF Sinclair’s fair value as high as $98.48 based on robust long-term earnings growth, while others estimate it much lower at $42.00, reflecting concerns about margins and regulatory risk. This shows how Narratives help bring different viewpoints to life.
Do you think there’s more to the story for HF Sinclair? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!
NYSE:DINO Community Fair Values as at Nov 2025
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include DINO.
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