Achieving 3,000MW by December this year would require the country to increase efforts more than twelvefold, according to the note
Photo: TBS
“>
Photo: TBS
The Bangladesh government has announced a new programme to install 3,000 megawatts of rooftop solar capacity by December 2025, amid the ongoing energy crisis, according to a briefing note published by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA).
However, it questioned whether the target is overly ambitious, noting that Bangladesh installed only 245MW of rooftop solar between June 2008 and June 2025, said a press release issued today (18 August).
Achieving 3,000MW by December this year would require the country to increase efforts more than twelvefold, according to the note.
Limited rooftop solar potential in designated buildings, inadequate quality control and budget for maintenance under the CAPEX model, and the risks associated with small-scale projects in rural areas under the OPEX model could derail plans. Illustration: IEEFA
“>
Limited rooftop solar potential in designated buildings, inadequate quality control and budget for maintenance under the CAPEX model, and the risks associated with small-scale projects in rural areas under the OPEX model could derail plans. Illustration: IEEFA
Shafiqul Alam, IEEFA’s lead energy analyst for Bangladesh and the author of the note, said that government offices, hospitals, educational and religious institutions are unlikely to offer adequate sanctioned load to install 3,000MW rooftop solar.
He recommended that the Sustainable and Renewable Energy Development Authority assess and document rooftop solar potential in these buildings.
Fund allocation for various projects, tendering, evaluation of bidding documents, issuing work orders and project implementation may require an extension of the December 2025 deadline, said the briefing note.
It also highlighted that only 15-20 high-quality engineering, procurement and construction companies operate in the country, and they may not have sufficient capacity to install 3,000MW in less than six months, read the release.
Under the new solar programme, government offices will roll out installations via the CAPEX model supported by public funds, while hospitals and educational institutions will operate under the OPEX model with no upfront cost, said the briefing note.
“While the CAPEX model allows faster rollout and higher savings, it may face risks from poor coordination, lack of maintenance and rushed developer selection. The OPEX model ensures quality but offers lower savings and may face financing hurdles and risks from load-shedding in rural areas.
“Projects that are small and scattered in rural areas may fail to attract companies to invest under the OPEX model,” said Shafiqul listing the pros and cons of both models.
The note also highlighted the risk of soiling, which could significantly reduce solar energy yield, and urged the government to instruct public offices to create a fund from monthly savings under CAPEX projects and enter long-term maintenance contracts with service providers.
Utilities should also address load-shedding in rural areas, as resulting solar generation loss could pose risks under the OPEX model, it said.
The briefing note suggested that Bangladesh can learn from neighbouring countries, such as India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka, which have a higher share of renewable energy in their power mix, ranging from 47% to 63%.
Pakistan’s rooftop solar success demonstrates how push factors such as energy supply shortages and high tariffs can drive adoption. In Sri Lanka, the government overcame financing barriers with multilateral support and later provided funds for rooftop solar on public buildings, according to the note.
India’s rooftop solar capacity of more than 18 gigawatts in May 2025 is attributed to consistent policy and regulatory support, it added.
Shafiqul emphasised that, as Bangladesh’s rooftop solar sector is still nascent, capacity development of key stakeholders and government agencies will be essential. He also called for an independent monitoring mechanism to ensure the smooth operation of projects.