(Bloomberg) — A rally that put the stock market within a striking distance of its all-time highs struggled to gain further traction ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve decision. Bitcoin halted its rebound. Bonds fell.
While most shares in the S&P 500 rose, the gauge was little changed. Bets on a Fed reduction next week remained intact despite a slide in jobless claims — a noisy reading that captured the Thanksgiving period. Meta Platforms Inc. jumped 4% as Bloomberg News reported executives are considering budget cuts for the metaverse group next year.
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Investor worries that the frenzy around artificial-intelligence has gone too far caused a wobble in equity markets last month. But the strong outlook for the sector alongside expectations that policy easing will fuel corporate profits propped up bets on further gains.
“The key question hanging over markets is whether a potential Federal Reserve rate cut next week can trigger a so-called Santa rally,” said Fawad Razaqzada at Forex.com. “For now, the S&P 500 forecast remains cautiously constructive, albeit with more hesitancy creeping in.”
The S&P 500 hovered near 6,845. The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose three basis points to 4.09%. The dollar fluctuated. The yen climbed as Bloomberg News reported that key members of the government wouldn’t try to stop the Bank of Japan if it decides to raise rates.
“After last week’s sharp rebound, the S&P 500 has made limited progress so far this week,” said Razaqzada. “Even so, the structure retains a mildly bullish slant.”
Several previously broken levels have now been reclaimed, reinforcing the impression that the bulls maintain a degree of control, he added.
To Matt Maley at Miller Tabak, while the market has spent the past few days consolidating gains, the set-up is a very good one.
“So unless we get a big reversal over the next few trading days, the advantage will definitely be with the bulls,” he said.
Maley notes that one area that could do well if we get a strong year-end rally is the small-cap space.
“A push to a new significant all-time high might finally attract the kind of momentum money that could help this part of the stock market outperform,” he said. “Of course, if the mega-cap tech stocks start to roll-over in a big way, all bets will be off.”
The US tech sector is likely to remain a key driver for the market’s next leg up, but its recent underperformance also points to other compelling opportunities across the market, according to Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi at UBS Global Wealth Management.
“As we expect US equities to rally into 2026, we think under-allocated investors should add exposure,” she said. “Beyond the tech sector, we expect a good performance from the health care, utilities, and banking sectors to broaden the foundation for further gains.”
Hoffmann-Burchardi continues to expect two rate cuts by the end of the first quarter of 2026.
“In addition to being supportive to equities, the Fed’s easing path also creates a positive backdrop for quality bonds,” she said.
On the macro front, applications for US unemployment benefits fell last week to the lowest in more than three years, indicating that employers are still largely holding onto workers despite a wave of recent layoffs.
Separate data from Challenger, Gray & Christmas showed announced layoffs at US companies fell last month after surging in October, but were still the highest for any November in three years.
“Overall, the net takeaway from the data served to confirm the crosscurrents evident in the labor landscape,” said Ian Lyngen at BMO Capital Markets.
Policymakers will not yet have the government’s November jobs report in hand for their meeting next week. The report, originally due Dec. 5, was delayed until Dec. 16 as a result of the record-long government shutdown. That release will also include October payrolls figures.
“There remain some negative payroll employment readings. But the US labor market is not collapsing based on timely data & reports that have leading indicator properties,” said Don Rissmiller at Strategas. “We continue to believe the Fed will cut the fed funds rate again by 25 basis points in December.”
While investors are largely betting policymakers will cut rates again, officials have rarely been so divided as many still prefer leaving rates elevated to keep inflation in check.
Before their final policy meeting of the year, Fed officials will get a dated reading on their preferred inflation gauge. On Friday, the September income and spending report — long delayed because of the government shutdown — is due to be released.
The figures will include the personal consumption expenditures price index and a core measure that excludes food and energy. Economists project a third-straight 0.2% increase in the core index. That would keep the year-over-year figure hovering just below 3%, a sign that inflationary pressures are stable, yet sticky.
Corporate Highlights:
Meta Platforms Inc.’s Mark Zuckerberg is expected to meaningfully cut resources for building the so-called metaverse, an effort that he once framed as the future of the company and the reason for changing its name from Facebook Inc. Meta Platforms risks a temporary European Union ban on the rollout of new policies over how its AI features in WhatsApp, after being hit by the latest probe into Big Tech’s alleged dominance on the continent. Paramount Skydance Corp. said Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. isn’t being fair in its process to sell itself and isn’t acting in shareholders’ best interests, as a competitive bidding process is underway. Salesforce Inc. gave an outlook for revenue in the current period that topped analysts’ estimates, suggesting the software company is persuading customers to buy its AI tools. Snowflake Inc. gave an outlook for operating margin that fell short of analysts’ estimates, raising concerns among investors about the profitability of new AI-based tools. Dollar General Corp. raised its full-year outlook, showing how value-focused retailers are winning over consumers hunting for deals. Kroger Co. lowered the top end of its full-year sales forecast, suggesting that competition is intensifying among food sellers for discerning consumers. Toronto-Dominion Bank, Bank of Montreal and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce all beat estimates on results that included strong performance in their capital-markets businesses, continuing a trend seen across other Canadian lenders and wrapping up a year marked by buoyant markets and more advisory work. Novo Nordisk A/S left open the door for additional work on its pill version of Ozempic for Alzheimer’s disease after a pair of failed trials, saying that patients showed a biological response in a handful of areas despite getting no cognitive improvement. Rio Tinto Group’s new chief executive will focus on cutting costs and selling assets in a bid to turn the world’s second largest miner into a slimmed-down operation centered primarily on iron ore and copper. Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
The S&P 500 was little changed as of 12:06 p.m. New York time The Nasdaq 100 was little changed The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1% The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.5% The MSCI World Index rose 0.3% Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.3% The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.7% Meta rose 4.1% Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed The euro fell 0.1% to $1.1659 The British pound was little changed at $1.3350 The Japanese yen rose 0.2% to 154.93 per dollar Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin fell 1.6% to $92,266.32 Ether was little changed at $3,164.38 Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 4.09% Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 2.77% Britain’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 4.43% The yield on 2-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 3.52% The yield on 30-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.75% Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.4% to $59.78 a barrel Spot gold rose 0.2% to $4,212.92 an ounce ©2025 Bloomberg L.P.